Architect Handover Document (`ARCHITECT_HANDOVER.md`)

This document outlines the functional state of the Quant Terminal, the mathematical thresholds used by the HSL status triggers, and the structures of active data proxies.

1. Functional State of the Station

The Quant Terminal operates with 7 primary functional modules mounted in app/page.tsx:

Sandbox (activeTab === 'sandbox'): Solves Swamy-Arora random effects regressions.
Scanner (activeTab === 'scanner'): Visualizes live asset scanners.
Insider (activeTab === 'insider'): Tracks corporate insider trades.
Krypto Bayes (activeTab === 'crypto'): Implements Bayesian on-chain learning models, featuring a Walk-Forward Multi-Model Ensemble Radar (RF, XGB/GB, LR, SVM, MLP) and 15 independent Beta-Posterior trackers.
Ökonometrie (activeTab === 'events'): Conducts econometric event studies.
Eco Indicators (activeTab === 'macro'): Monitors 21 FRED macroeconomic and credit indicators.
AI Special Silo (activeTab === 'tech'): Tracks the tech CapEx overinvestment cycle.

All endpoints support a 60-minute in-memory caching TTL.

2. Core Mathematical Thresholds & Status Triggers

Indicators in the cockpit cards use HSL-tailored status lights (Emerald-Green, Amber, Flashing Neon Rose-Red).

Macroeconomics Silo (Module 6)

Card 1 (Inflation & Consumer):
- RED: CPI Inflation YoY \ge 3.0\%, Credit Card Delinquencies > 4.5\%, or Personal Savings Rate < 3.0\%.
- AMBER: CPI Inflation \ge 2.5\%, Credit Card Delinquencies > 3.5\%, or Personal Savings Rate < 4.0\%.
- GREEN: Normal operations.
Card 2 (Valuation & Liquidity):
- RED: Buffett Indicator Ratio > 150\%, or M2 money supply trend is DOWN.
- AMBER: Buffett Indicator Ratio > 130\%, or Reverse Repo (RRP) volume $< 400$B$.
- GREEN: Normal valuation limits.
Card 3 (Yield Curve & Credit):
- RED: 2S10S yield spread is inverted (< 0.0\%), or High-Yield Credit Spread > 5.0\%.
- AMBER: 2S10S spread < 0.1\%, or High-Yield Credit Spread > 4.0\%.
- GREEN: Positive term structure.

AI & Tech Silo (Module 7)

Card 1 (Monetization Gap):
- RED: Minimum Monetization Gap among constituents < -15\% (diminishing segment returns).
- AMBER: Minimum Monetization Gap < 0\% (CapEx growth outstripping segment revenue growth).
- GREEN: Positive monetization gap (revenue growing faster than capital expenditures).
Card 2 (Supply-Chain Velocity):
- RED: Velocity Index < 1.8x, or velocity trend is DOWN (buyers reducing forward commitments).
- AMBER: Velocity Index < 3.0x (buyer commitments softening relative to supplier inventory).
- GREEN: Normal supply speeds (\ge 3.0x).
Card 3 (Infrastructure Leverage):
- RED: Maximum CapEx-to-Depreciation Ratio > 4.0x, or maximum Debt-to-Equity Ratio > 1.2 (highly leveraged node expansion).
- AMBER: Maximum CapEx-to-Depreciation > 2.5x, or maximum Debt-to-Equity > 0.8.
- GREEN: Asset expansion supported by low-leverage ratios.

3. Active Data Proxy Models

AI Special Silo API Response Schema (`/api/tech/ai`)

{
  "dates": ["Q3-24", "Q4-24", "Q1-25", "Q2-25", "Q3-25", "Q4-25", "Q1-26", "Q2-26"],
  "liveDataAvailable": false,
  "timestamp": 1781274890000,
  "metrics": {
    "monetizationGap": {
      "name": "ROI-to-CapEx & Monetization Gap",
      "tickers": {
        "NVDA": {
          "current": -5.3,
          "previous": -4.2,
          "trend": "DOWN",
          "segmentRevenueGrowth": 3.1,
          "capexGrowth": 8.4,
          "roiToCapex": 2.6,
          "data": [
            { "quarter": "Q3-24", "monetizationGap": 0.0, "roiToCapex": 0.0, "segmentRevenueGrowth": 0.0, "capexGrowth": 0.0 }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    "supplyChain": {
      "name": "Nvidia Supply-Chain Velocity Index",
      "unit": "x",
      "currentVelocity": 2.2,
      "previousVelocity": 2.5,
      "currentTurnover": 5.7,
      "currentObligations": 18700,
      "trend": "DOWN",
      "data": [
        { "quarter": "Q3-24", "nvdaInvTurnover": 5.2, "aggregateObligations": 14500, "velocityIndex": 3.2 }
      ]
    },
    "infrastructure": {
      "name": "Tech Infrastructure Leverage & Cluster Expansion",
      "tickers": {
        "MSFT": {
          "currentDE": 0.3,
          "currentCapExDep": 3.9,
          "trendDE": "UP",
          "data": [
            { "quarter": "Q3-24", "de": 0.34, "capexDep": 3.2, "debt": 77800, "equity": 228900 }
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

Crypto Multi-Model Ensemble API Schema (`/api/crypto/ensemble`)

{
  "isShieldActive": true,
  "predictions": {
    "BTC": {
      "rf": { "T1": 0.62, "T5": 0.58, "T10": 0.54 },
      "gb": { "T1": 0.65, "T5": 0.61, "T10": 0.51 },
      "lr": { "T1": 0.58, "T5": 0.57, "T10": 0.55 },
      "svm": { "T1": 0.60, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.56 },
      "mlp": { "T1": 0.64, "T5": 0.60, "T10": 0.53 }
    },
    "ETH": {
      "rf": { "T1": 0.60, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.54 },
      "gb": { "T1": 0.66, "T5": 0.61, "T10": 0.48 },
      "lr": { "T1": 0.58, "T5": 0.55, "T10": 0.56 },
      "svm": { "T1": 0.59, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.56 },
      "mlp": { "T1": 0.64, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.55 }
    },
    "SOL": {
      "rf": { "T1": 0.65, "T5": 0.58, "T10": 0.52 },
      "gb": { "T1": 0.63, "T5": 0.63, "T10": 0.54 },
      "lr": { "T1": 0.59, "T5": 0.58, "T10": 0.54 },
      "svm": { "T1": 0.60, "T5": 0.62, "T10": 0.56 },
      "mlp": { "T1": 0.66, "T5": 0.60, "T10": 0.51 }
    }
  }
}

PEAD Drift Radar API Response Schema (`/api/scanner`)

{
  "results": [
    {
      "ticker": "NVDA",
      "name": "NVIDIA Corporation",
      "peadSector": "Technology",
      "announcementDate": "2026-05-20",
      "daysElapsed": 25,
      "epsActual": 6.12,
      "epsConsensus": 5.58,
      "surprisePercent": 9.68,
      "driftStatus": "Active Drift",
      "isLiveApi": true
    }
  ],
  "isShieldActive": false
}

4. Fallback Protection & Operational Transparency Levels

The workstation enforces zero silent caching or historical data ingestion:

PEAD Drift Radar: Uses a dynamic state flag isLivePeadApi to toggle status rendering.
- Green Badge (🟢 LIVE EPS FEED): FMP API endpoint responded with real-world quarterly reports (isLiveApi: true).
- Amber Badge (⚠️ ARCHIV-DATEN (API OFFLINE)): Live API timeout, failure, or developer shield fallback active (isLiveApi: false).

6.6 KiB Raw Blame History

Architect Handover Document (ARCHITECT_HANDOVER.md)