250 lines
21 KiB
Markdown
250 lines
21 KiB
Markdown
# Chronological Development Log (`DEV_LOG.md`)
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This document tracks all modifications, npm packages, active compilation states, and testing notes chronologically.
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---
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## [2026-06-12] - Phase 4.7 Deployment & Behavioral Rule Lock
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### Added
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Created the centralized quantitative architecture blueprint tracking our 6-level cockpit data matrix and individual asset scoring metrics.
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* **`AGENTS.md`**: Rewrote the central behavioral framework containing nextjs agent rules, tech stack constraints, blind environment rules, and `/devchain` session protocols.
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* **`DEV_LOG.md`**: Initialized this log to keep track of development history.
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* **`ARCHITECT_HANDOVER.md`**: Initialized the architect handover documentation.
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* **AI Special Silo Backend Route**: Deployed [/api/tech/ai/route.ts](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/app/api/tech/ai/route.ts) with a 60-minute cache and calculations for the Monetization Gap, Nvidia SC Velocity Index, and Tech Infrastructure Leverage.
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* **AI Special Silo UI Workstation**: Deployed [AiSpecialSilo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/tech/AiSpecialSilo.tsx) featuring a glassmorphic analytics viewer, dynamic Recharts sparklines, and status indicators.
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* **AI Special Silo English Handbook**: Deployed [TechMathModal.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/tech/TechMathModal.tsx) displaying extensive documentation and BlockMath LaTeX equations.
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### Modified
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* **`app/page.tsx`**: Integrated the `[⚡ AI Special Silo]` tab inside the main workstation navigation headers.
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### Dependencies Verified
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* `next` (v16.2.7)
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* `react` (v19.2.4)
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* `recharts` (v3.8.1)
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* `react-katex` (v3.1.0)
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* `katex` (v0.17.0)
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* `lucide-react` (v1.17.0)
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* `zustand` (v5.0.14)
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---
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## [2026-06-12] - Phase 2.0 Overreaction Scanner Overhaul (#ISSUE-008)
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### Added
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* **Anomalies-Scanner API Overhaul**: Implemented strict `force-dynamic` settings on [/api/scanner/route.ts](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/app/api/scanner/route.ts), expanded the calculation pool to 120+ assets, and integrated the FMP Small-Cap stock-screener vector with a fallback list of 30 volatile small-caps.
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* **Interactive Diagnostic Drawers**: Added expandable sub-rows inside [ScannerDemo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/scanner/ScannerDemo.tsx) featuring drop catalyst dropdown selectors (Earnings Miss, Systemic Selloff, Executive Shift, Regulatory Issue, Supply Chain) and real-time GJR-GARCH rebound gauge columns.
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* **Rebound Probability Math**: Incorporated real-time rebound probability calculations utilizing GJR-GARCH outlier scores and catalyst stress damping coefficients.
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### Modified
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Updated Section 1 and added Section 4.IV documenting the Rebound Probability Score model equations in BlockMath LaTeX.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-12] - Offline-First Architectural Shield (`DEV_MODE`) (#ISSUE-009)
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### Added
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* **API Outbound Interception Layer**: Configured [/api/scanner/route.ts](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/app/api/scanner/route.ts) and [/api/tech/ai/route.ts](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/app/api/tech/ai/route.ts) to intercept fetches if `process.env.DEV_MODE === 'true'`, completely bypassing outbound network calls and short-circuiting to high-fidelity mock/fallback data with `isShieldActive: true`.
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* **Visual Status Badges**: Mounted highly polished, glassmorphic "API Layer Status" badges inside [ScannerDemo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/scanner/ScannerDemo.tsx) and [AiSpecialSilo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/tech/AiSpecialSilo.tsx) upper control bars, displaying "🟡 DEV-ARCHIV AKTIV (0 CALLS)" if the shield is active, and "🟢 LIVE-API ENDPUNKT (FMP CORPO)" if inactive.
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* **Environment Perimeter Lock**: Appended `DEV_MODE=true` inside [.env](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/.env) to lock the local sandbox securely into a zero-cost offline state.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-12] - Phase 3.0 Whale Satellite-Screener (#ISSUE-010)
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### Added
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* **Whale Screener API Endpoint**: Created [/api/whale/screener/route.ts](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/app/api/whale/screener/route.ts) which ingests SEC 13F filings for target CIKs: Scion (Michael Burry), Akre Capital, and Mairs & Power. Calculates relative portfolio weights and Velocity of Conviction (VoC) weight deltas between the last two quarters. Supports `DEV_MODE` offline short-circuit.
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* **Whale Screener UI Tab**: Deployed [WhaleScreener.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/whale/WhaleScreener.tsx) featuring a premium glassmorphic dark terminal with Whale Profile Cards on the left and a consolidated buy/sell ledger sorted strictly by highest positive VoC delta on the right.
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* **Whale Handbook Modal**: Deployed [WhaleMathModal.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/whale/WhaleMathModal.tsx) displaying full-screen explanations of the 45-day reporting lag and VoC equations in block LaTeX.
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### Modified
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* **`app/page.tsx`**: Integrated the `[🐋 Whale Screener]` tab in the headers and switcher block.
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Updated Section 1 and Section 3 to document the Whale Screener milestone.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-12] - Smart-Money Refactoring, Visual Consolidation & Security Shield (#ISSUE-011)
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### Added
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* **Insider API Outbound Interception Layer**: Configured [/api/insider/route.ts](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/app/api/insider/route.ts) to intercept requests when `process.env.DEV_MODE === 'true'`, short-circuiting live FMP calls and returning high-fidelity mock streams with `isShieldActive: true`.
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* **Insider UI Workstation badge**: Upgraded [InsiderDemo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/insider/InsiderDemo.tsx) to read the shield state and render the glowing amber status badge `🟡 DEV-ARCHIV AKTIV (0 CALLS)` when active.
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### Modified
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* **`app/page.tsx`**: Consolidated the separate `Insider` and `Whale Screener` tabs under a single `Smart Money` tab (activeTab `'smart-money'`). Implemented an interactive sub-tab selector toggle in the layout switcher. Removed bracket labels from the `⚡ AI Special Silo` navigation button.
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Updated Section 1 and Section 3 to document the Smart Money visual consolidation.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-13] - Sloan Ratio Accrual Radar (Phase 4.9 / Ebene 4) (#ISSUE-012)
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### Added
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* **Sloan Accrual Radar Solver**: Implemented the Richard Sloan Accrual formula `Accruals = NetIncome - (CFO + CFI)` and `SloanRatio = Accruals / TotalAssets * 100` on the server-side.
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* **Enhanced Mock & API Interception**: Updated `MOCK_TECH_AI_DATA` and the free Yahoo Finance `/api/finance` & `/api/scanner` endpoints to parse quarterly net income, CFO, CFI, and Total Assets, and return Sloan metrics. Supported `DEV_MODE` offline bypass returning simulated Sloan ratios with `isShieldActive: true`.
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* **Sloan UI Integration (Module 6)**: Mounted the "Sloan Earnings Quality" metric card at the top of [AiSpecialSilo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/tech/AiSpecialSilo.tsx) and added a dedicated detailed ledger panel for all active tickers.
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* **Sloan UI Integration (Module 2)**: Updated the Search Mask in [ScannerDemo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/scanner/ScannerDemo.tsx) to output the current Sloan Ratio and a green/rose indicator badge alongside the GJR-GARCH forecast.
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* **Math Handbook details**: Expanded [TechMathModal.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/tech/TechMathModal.tsx) to explain the Sloan Accounting Anomaly with block LaTeX equations.
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### Modified
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Updated Section 4.I detailing the Sloan Ratio mathematical formulations and regime classifications.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-13] - Crypto Bayes Mathematical Refactoring (#ISSUE-013)
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### Added
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* **Mathematical Specifications & Integration Proof**: Expanded [CryptoMathModal.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/crypto/CryptoMathModal.tsx) with a detailed Section D on the 4-feature client-side Random Forest, Section E on the conjugate Beta-Binomial update, and Section F with the formal calculus integration proof and expanded operational formula.
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* **UI Status Badge**: Mounted a static glowing amber status badge `🟡 SYSTEM-AUTARK (OFFLINE-CORE)` in the header of [CryptoDemo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/crypto/CryptoDemo.tsx) to confirm the module runs 100% locally with zero external API calls.
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### Modified
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* **KaTeX Escaping Repairs**: Fixed string escaping anomalies by double-escaping LaTeX backslashes across [CryptoMathModal.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/crypto/CryptoMathModal.tsx) to eliminate runtime KaTeX rendering corruption.
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Synchronized quantitative system specifications under Section 4.V.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-13] - System-Wide Handbook Sweep, English Consolidation & Crypto State Persistence (#ISSUE-014)
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### Added
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* **Sandbox Math Handbook**: Created `components/modules/sandbox/SandboxMathModal.tsx` detailing the Kelly Criterion, Half-Kelly safety buffers, percentage weightings (\(w_i\)), and synthetic portfolio returns (\(R_{pt}\)) in double-escaped BlockMath LaTeX.
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* **Crypto Online Learning Loop**: Integrated a client-side background evaluation routine inside `components/modules/crypto/CryptoDemo.tsx` that resolves active forecasts against price histories from `/api/finance?region=crypto` and updates the Bayesian online calibration parameters.
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### Modified
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* **KaTeX Escaping & Close Handler Audit**: Standardized all 8 math handbook modals with Escape key listeners and glassmorphic floating top-right "X" buttons. Repaired all escaping sequences for KaTeX rendering strings across all components.
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* **100% Institutional English Translation**: Swapped all remaining German UI texts, buttons (e.g. `📖 Modulerklärung` renamed to `📖 Quantitative Handbook`), table cells, and warnings to professional English across all tabs (`Smart Money`, `Events/Econometrics`, `Macro`, `Tech Silo`, `Sandbox`, `Scanner`).
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* **Next.js SSR Hydration Safeguard**: Wrapped `localStorage` operations for `alphaSuccess`, `betaFailure`, and active forecasts inside a React `useEffect` hook in `CryptoDemo.tsx` to prevent hydration mismatches.
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Updated Section 1 and Section 4.VI detailing the Sandbox Portfolio and Kelly sizing formulations.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-13] - Multi-Model Ensemble & Walk-Forward Radar (#ISSUE-015)
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### Added
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* **Stationary Preprocessing & Training Pipeline (Python)**: Created [backend/core/pipeline.py](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/backend/core/pipeline.py) implementing a stationary feature pipeline (Log-Returns, Rolling Volatility, RSI, EMA/SMA distance, spread) on a 365-day rolling window with horizon-cutoff safeguards to prevent look-ahead target leakage. Fits 5 estimators (Random Forest, XGBoost/GB, ElasticNet Logistic Regression, SVM, MLP) for T+1, T+5, and T+10 targets, exporting to `public/data/ensemble_predictions.json`.
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* **Ensemble API Route**: Deployed [/api/crypto/ensemble/route.ts](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/app/api/crypto/ensemble/route.ts) which parses predictions from the static JSON payload, with a high-fidelity simulated fallback if the file is missing or invalid.
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* **Walk-Forward Ensemble Radar Grid**: Refactored [CryptoDemo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/crypto/CryptoDemo.tsx) to mount a glassmorphic Walk-Forward Ensemble Radar dashboard panel displaying predictions, successes/failures, and Expected Value calculations (\(E[\theta] = \alpha / (\alpha + \beta)\)) across 15 independent trackers (5 models \(\times\) 3 horizons) saved in `localStorage`.
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* **Beta-Posterior Calibration Simulator & Feedback Loop**: Configured the client-side background evaluation loop to resolve forecasts by comparing all 15 estimators against actual returns. Added a calibration simulator to simulate correct/false outcomes across all trackers.
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### Modified
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Appended Section IV.V.5 detailing Walk-Forward Validation, Horizon Cutoffs, ML fleet, and multi-tracker conjugate updating.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-13] - Launch Native KaTeX Rig & Comprehensive Dual-Handbook Architecture (#ISSUE-016)
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### Added
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* **8 new Operational Blueprint Modals**: Authored and mounted operational guide modals explaining user interface interactions, mock data updates, and loop logics for:
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* `CryptoBlueprintModal.tsx` (Crypto Bayes expected values e.g. "62/14" and "E: 85.5%")
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* `ScannerBlueprintModal.tsx` (Anomalies Scanner search masks)
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* `SandboxBlueprintModal.tsx` (Portfolio Sandbox transaction ledger)
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* `WhaleBlueprintModal.tsx` (Whale Satellites 13F lag warnings)
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* `InsiderBlueprintModal.tsx` (Insider Activity Form 4 codes)
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* `MacroBlueprintModal.tsx` (Macro FRED indicators and credit metrics)
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* `EconometricsBlueprintModal.tsx` (Event studies estimation parameters)
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* `TechBlueprintModal.tsx` (Tech CapEx monitor Sloan quality filters)
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### Modified
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* **8 Dashboard UI Modules Refactored**: Upgraded `CryptoDemo.tsx`, `ScannerDemo.tsx`, `SandboxDemo.tsx`, `WhaleScreener.tsx`, `InsiderDemo.tsx`, `MacroIndicatorsDemo.tsx`, `EventsDemo.tsx`, and `AiSpecialSilo.tsx` to feature the new side-by-side header buttons `📖 Quantitative Handbook` and `⚙️ Operational Blueprint`.
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* **Native KaTeX Migration**: Migrated all math modals to wrap formulas strictly in native `<InlineMath>` and `<BlockMath>` component calls from `react-katex` with clean, single-escaped backslashes, eliminating parsing corruption.
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* **Tailwind Typo Purge**: Cleaned up and deleted all occurrences of the non-existent `bg-slate-955` color class, replacing it with the correct `bg-slate-950` or `bg-slate-900` glassmorphic tokens.
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Updated the Milestones log to document Phase 5.0.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified 100% clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-14] - Master-Pattern KaTeX Fix & Deep Blueprint Injection (#ISSUE-017)
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### Added
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* **Detailed Mathematics in Operational Blueprints**: Expanded and injected formal quantitative formulas, parameter definitions, and estimation window thresholds inside:
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* `components/modules/scanner/ScannerBlueprintModal.tsx` (Welles Wilder RSI-14 EMA smoothing, 52-Week Drop thresholds, and FMP Valuation Overlay to Forward P/E transitions).
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* `components/modules/events/EconometricsBlueprintModal.tsx` (Event Studies layout, 120-day Estimation Window, 10-day Gap Isolation Shield, and Cumulative Abnormal Returns CAR aggregation formulas).
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* `components/modules/tech/TechBlueprintModal.tsx` (AI CapEx cycle parameters, SEC 10-Q filing parsers, Monetization Gap, and Supply-Chain Velocity Index formulas).
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### Modified
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* **KaTeX "Kaputt-repariert" Mitigation**: Audited and rewritten `components/modules/crypto/CryptoMathModal.tsx` to completely resolve formatting corruption by establishing the golden master single-backslash pattern and converting all double backslashes (`\\`) in math strings to single backslashes (`\`), with correct matrix formatting.
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* **System-Wide Variable Unification**: Unified and wrapped all mathematical variables (such as `S_1`, `S_2`, `S_3`, `S_i`, `S_j`, `w`, `k` in Crypto, and other parameters across Scanner, Macro, and Econometrics modals) inside native `<InlineMath>` components.
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* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Updated Section 1 and registered Phase 5.5.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified 100% clean type verification (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-14] - Insider CSS Viewport Refactoring (#ISSUE-018)
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### Modified
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* **CSS Modal Layout Refactoring**: Fixed the viewport clipping bug in `InsiderMathModal.tsx` and `InsiderBlueprintModal.tsx` by updating the outer wrapper classes to `items-start` with `overflow-y-auto`, and inner card classes to `my-auto max-h-full` to allow dynamic scaling and scrolling.
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* **Escape Key & Close Triggers**: Verified that both Escape key events and floating "X" close buttons remain fully functional and reachable across all screen dimensions.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified 100% clean type verification (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-14] - Live Python Machine Learning Pipeline Integration (#ISSUE-019)
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### Added
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* **Real Data Ingestion**: Added a web-querying routine (`fetch_real_data()`) in `backend/core/pipeline.py` that queries 2 years of daily candles for `BTC-USD` from Yahoo Finance API (saving to `backend/data/BTC-USD.csv`) and queries real-time funding rates from the Binance USDS-M Futures REST API.
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* **Environment Dependency**: Installed `scikit-learn` in the local `Miniconda3` python environment using pip.
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* **Pipeline Model Training**: Executed model training using standard Walk-Forward validation on actual daily closing prices. Trained 5 estimators (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, SVM, MLP) across 3 horizons (T+1, T+5, T+10).
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* **Dynamic Ensemble Export**: Exported real probabilities into `public/data/ensemble_predictions.json` with `isShieldActive: false` to allow the terminal's Walk-Forward Ensemble Radar to render live active signals.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified 100% clean type verification (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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---
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## [2026-06-14] - Ticker Data Real-Time Alignment & ML Handbook Integration (#ISSUE-020)
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### Added
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* **Real-Time Price & Indicator Sync**: Updated the GET handler in `app/api/finance/route.ts` to query live Binance futures funding rates in parallel for all crypto assets (`BTC-USD`, `ETH-USD`, `SOL-USD`) and extract tail rows of `backend/data/BTC-USD.csv` for the primary `BTC-USD` price source. Exposes complete indicators (`fundingRate`, `openInterestChange`, `longShortRatio`, etc.) in the JSON payload.
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* **Reactive UI Price Cards**: Refactored `CryptoDemo.tsx` to hook all cards to a reactive `coins` state, executing a 15-second background update cycle fetching live prices, 24h percentage deltas, and indicators.
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* **Dynamic Liquidation Sizing**: Configured dynamic scaling of liquidation limits (`liqLong`, `liqShort`) relative to real-time prices to ensure consistent risk boundaries in the UI.
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* **Ensemble Estimator Specifications**: Injected a new "G. Ensemble Estimator Specifications" section into `CryptoMathModal.tsx` documenting the mathematical foundations (RF bagging, XGBoost gradient minimization, ElasticNet regularization, SVM RBF kernels, MLP hidden layers).
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* **Modal Viewport Clipping Fixes**: Applied `items-start`, `overflow-y-auto` and `my-auto max-h-full` to both `CryptoMathModal.tsx` and `CryptoBlueprintModal.tsx` to prevent clipping and enable scrolling.
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* **Active Learning Feedback Loop Expansion**: Expanded the table layout and storage state in `CryptoDemo.tsx` to snapshot the full 15-probability matrix layout. Displayed three separate columns for T+1, T+5, and T+10 consensus forecasts with individual model probability paths.
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### Active Bugs / Compile Status
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* **Active Bugs**: None.
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* **Type Checker Status**: Verified 100% clean type verification (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0).
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