investment-sandbox/DEV_LOG.md

Chronological Development Log (DEV_LOG.md)

This document tracks all modifications, npm packages, active compilation states, and testing notes chronologically.

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[2026-06-12] - Phase 4.7 Deployment & Behavioral Rule Lock

Added

• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Created the centralized quantitative architecture blueprint tracking our 6-level cockpit data matrix and individual asset scoring metrics.
• AGENTS.md: Rewrote the central behavioral framework containing nextjs agent rules, tech stack constraints, blind environment rules, and /devchain session protocols.
• DEV_LOG.md: Initialized this log to keep track of development history.
• ARCHITECT_HANDOVER.md: Initialized the architect handover documentation.
• AI Special Silo Backend Route: Deployed /api/tech/ai/route.ts with a 60-minute cache and calculations for the Monetization Gap, Nvidia SC Velocity Index, and Tech Infrastructure Leverage.
• AI Special Silo UI Workstation: Deployed AiSpecialSilo.tsx featuring a glassmorphic analytics viewer, dynamic Recharts sparklines, and status indicators.
• AI Special Silo English Handbook: Deployed TechMathModal.tsx displaying extensive documentation and BlockMath LaTeX equations.

Modified

• app/page.tsx: Integrated the [⚡ AI Special Silo] tab inside the main workstation navigation headers.

Dependencies Verified

• next (v16.2.7)
• react (v19.2.4)
• recharts (v3.8.1)
• react-katex (v3.1.0)
• katex (v0.17.0)
• lucide-react (v1.17.0)
• zustand (v5.0.14)

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[2026-06-12] - Phase 2.0 Overreaction Scanner Overhaul (#ISSUE-008)

Added

• Anomalies-Scanner API Overhaul: Implemented strict force-dynamic settings on /api/scanner/route.ts, expanded the calculation pool to 120+ assets, and integrated the FMP Small-Cap stock-screener vector with a fallback list of 30 volatile small-caps.
• Interactive Diagnostic Drawers: Added expandable sub-rows inside ScannerDemo.tsx featuring drop catalyst dropdown selectors (Earnings Miss, Systemic Selloff, Executive Shift, Regulatory Issue, Supply Chain) and real-time GJR-GARCH rebound gauge columns.
• Rebound Probability Math: Incorporated real-time rebound probability calculations utilizing GJR-GARCH outlier scores and catalyst stress damping coefficients.

Modified

• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Updated Section 1 and added Section 4.IV documenting the Rebound Probability Score model equations in BlockMath LaTeX.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-12] - Offline-First Architectural Shield (DEV_MODE) (#ISSUE-009)

Added

• API Outbound Interception Layer: Configured /api/scanner/route.ts and /api/tech/ai/route.ts to intercept fetches if process.env.DEV_MODE === 'true', completely bypassing outbound network calls and short-circuiting to high-fidelity mock/fallback data with isShieldActive: true.
• Visual Status Badges: Mounted highly polished, glassmorphic "API Layer Status" badges inside ScannerDemo.tsx and AiSpecialSilo.tsx upper control bars, displaying "🟡 DEV-ARCHIV AKTIV (0 CALLS)" if the shield is active, and "🟢 LIVE-API ENDPUNKT (FMP CORPO)" if inactive.
• Environment Perimeter Lock: Appended DEV_MODE=true inside .env to lock the local sandbox securely into a zero-cost offline state.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-12] - Phase 3.0 Whale Satellite-Screener (#ISSUE-010)

Added

• Whale Screener API Endpoint: Created /api/whale/screener/route.ts which ingests SEC 13F filings for target CIKs: Scion (Michael Burry), Akre Capital, and Mairs & Power. Calculates relative portfolio weights and Velocity of Conviction (VoC) weight deltas between the last two quarters. Supports DEV_MODE offline short-circuit.
• Whale Screener UI Tab: Deployed WhaleScreener.tsx featuring a premium glassmorphic dark terminal with Whale Profile Cards on the left and a consolidated buy/sell ledger sorted strictly by highest positive VoC delta on the right.
• Whale Handbook Modal: Deployed WhaleMathModal.tsx displaying full-screen explanations of the 45-day reporting lag and VoC equations in block LaTeX.

Modified

• app/page.tsx: Integrated the [🐋 Whale Screener] tab in the headers and switcher block.
• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Updated Section 1 and Section 3 to document the Whale Screener milestone.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-12] - Smart-Money Refactoring, Visual Consolidation & Security Shield (#ISSUE-011)

Added

• Insider API Outbound Interception Layer: Configured /api/insider/route.ts to intercept requests when process.env.DEV_MODE === 'true', short-circuiting live FMP calls and returning high-fidelity mock streams with isShieldActive: true.
• Insider UI Workstation badge: Upgraded InsiderDemo.tsx to read the shield state and render the glowing amber status badge 🟡 DEV-ARCHIV AKTIV (0 CALLS) when active.

Modified

• app/page.tsx: Consolidated the separate Insider and Whale Screener tabs under a single Smart Money tab (activeTab 'smart-money'). Implemented an interactive sub-tab selector toggle in the layout switcher. Removed bracket labels from the ⚡ AI Special Silo navigation button.
• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Updated Section 1 and Section 3 to document the Smart Money visual consolidation.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-13] - Sloan Ratio Accrual Radar (Phase 4.9 / Ebene 4) (#ISSUE-012)

Added

• Sloan Accrual Radar Solver: Implemented the Richard Sloan Accrual formula Accruals = NetIncome - (CFO + CFI) and SloanRatio = Accruals / TotalAssets * 100 on the server-side.
• Enhanced Mock & API Interception: Updated MOCK_TECH_AI_DATA and the free Yahoo Finance /api/finance & /api/scanner endpoints to parse quarterly net income, CFO, CFI, and Total Assets, and return Sloan metrics. Supported DEV_MODE offline bypass returning simulated Sloan ratios with isShieldActive: true.
• Sloan UI Integration (Module 6): Mounted the "Sloan Earnings Quality" metric card at the top of AiSpecialSilo.tsx and added a dedicated detailed ledger panel for all active tickers.
• Sloan UI Integration (Module 2): Updated the Search Mask in ScannerDemo.tsx to output the current Sloan Ratio and a green/rose indicator badge alongside the GJR-GARCH forecast.
• Math Handbook details: Expanded TechMathModal.tsx to explain the Sloan Accounting Anomaly with block LaTeX equations.

Modified

• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Updated Section 4.I detailing the Sloan Ratio mathematical formulations and regime classifications.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-13] - Crypto Bayes Mathematical Refactoring (#ISSUE-013)

Added

• Mathematical Specifications & Integration Proof: Expanded CryptoMathModal.tsx with a detailed Section D on the 4-feature client-side Random Forest, Section E on the conjugate Beta-Binomial update, and Section F with the formal calculus integration proof and expanded operational formula.
• UI Status Badge: Mounted a static glowing amber status badge 🟡 SYSTEM-AUTARK (OFFLINE-CORE) in the header of CryptoDemo.tsx to confirm the module runs 100% locally with zero external API calls.

Modified

• KaTeX Escaping Repairs: Fixed string escaping anomalies by double-escaping LaTeX backslashes across CryptoMathModal.tsx to eliminate runtime KaTeX rendering corruption.
• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Synchronized quantitative system specifications under Section 4.V.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-13] - System-Wide Handbook Sweep, English Consolidation & Crypto State Persistence (#ISSUE-014)

Added

• Sandbox Math Handbook: Created components/modules/sandbox/SandboxMathModal.tsx detailing the Kelly Criterion, Half-Kelly safety buffers, percentage weightings ((w_i)), and synthetic portfolio returns ((R_{pt})) in double-escaped BlockMath LaTeX.
• Crypto Online Learning Loop: Integrated a client-side background evaluation routine inside components/modules/crypto/CryptoDemo.tsx that resolves active forecasts against price histories from /api/finance?region=crypto and updates the Bayesian online calibration parameters.

Modified

• KaTeX Escaping & Close Handler Audit: Standardized all 8 math handbook modals with Escape key listeners and glassmorphic floating top-right "X" buttons. Repaired all escaping sequences for KaTeX rendering strings across all components.
• 100% Institutional English Translation: Swapped all remaining German UI texts, buttons (e.g. 📖 Modulerklärung renamed to 📖 Quantitative Handbook), table cells, and warnings to professional English across all tabs (Smart Money, Events/Econometrics, Macro, Tech Silo, Sandbox, Scanner).
• Next.js SSR Hydration Safeguard: Wrapped localStorage operations for alphaSuccess, betaFailure, and active forecasts inside a React useEffect hook in CryptoDemo.tsx to prevent hydration mismatches.
• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Updated Section 1 and Section 4.VI detailing the Sandbox Portfolio and Kelly sizing formulations.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-13] - Multi-Model Ensemble & Walk-Forward Radar (#ISSUE-015)

Added

• Stationary Preprocessing & Training Pipeline (Python): Created backend/core/pipeline.py implementing a stationary feature pipeline (Log-Returns, Rolling Volatility, RSI, EMA/SMA distance, spread) on a 365-day rolling window with horizon-cutoff safeguards to prevent look-ahead target leakage. Fits 5 estimators (Random Forest, XGBoost/GB, ElasticNet Logistic Regression, SVM, MLP) for T+1, T+5, and T+10 targets, exporting to public/data/ensemble_predictions.json.
• Ensemble API Route: Deployed /api/crypto/ensemble/route.ts which parses predictions from the static JSON payload, with a high-fidelity simulated fallback if the file is missing or invalid.
• Walk-Forward Ensemble Radar Grid: Refactored CryptoDemo.tsx to mount a glassmorphic Walk-Forward Ensemble Radar dashboard panel displaying predictions, successes/failures, and Expected Value calculations ((E[\theta] = \alpha / (\alpha + \beta))) across 15 independent trackers (5 models (\times) 3 horizons) saved in localStorage.
• Beta-Posterior Calibration Simulator & Feedback Loop: Configured the client-side background evaluation loop to resolve forecasts by comparing all 15 estimators against actual returns. Added a calibration simulator to simulate correct/false outcomes across all trackers.

Modified

• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Appended Section IV.V.5 detailing Walk-Forward Validation, Horizon Cutoffs, ML fleet, and multi-tracker conjugate updating.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-13] - Launch Native KaTeX Rig & Comprehensive Dual-Handbook Architecture (#ISSUE-016)

Added

• 8 new Operational Blueprint Modals: Authored and mounted operational guide modals explaining user interface interactions, mock data updates, and loop logics for:
  • CryptoBlueprintModal.tsx (Crypto Bayes expected values e.g. "62/14" and "E: 85.5%")
  • ScannerBlueprintModal.tsx (Anomalies Scanner search masks)
  • SandboxBlueprintModal.tsx (Portfolio Sandbox transaction ledger)
  • WhaleBlueprintModal.tsx (Whale Satellites 13F lag warnings)
  • InsiderBlueprintModal.tsx (Insider Activity Form 4 codes)
  • MacroBlueprintModal.tsx (Macro FRED indicators and credit metrics)
  • EconometricsBlueprintModal.tsx (Event studies estimation parameters)
  • TechBlueprintModal.tsx (Tech CapEx monitor Sloan quality filters)

Modified

• 8 Dashboard UI Modules Refactored: Upgraded CryptoDemo.tsx, ScannerDemo.tsx, SandboxDemo.tsx, WhaleScreener.tsx, InsiderDemo.tsx, MacroIndicatorsDemo.tsx, EventsDemo.tsx, and AiSpecialSilo.tsx to feature the new side-by-side header buttons 📖 Quantitative Handbook and ⚙️ Operational Blueprint.
• Native KaTeX Migration: Migrated all math modals to wrap formulas strictly in native <InlineMath> and <BlockMath> component calls from react-katex with clean, single-escaped backslashes, eliminating parsing corruption.
• Tailwind Typo Purge: Cleaned up and deleted all occurrences of the non-existent bg-slate-955 color class, replacing it with the correct bg-slate-950 or bg-slate-900 glassmorphic tokens.
• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Updated the Milestones log to document Phase 5.0.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified 100% clean compilation (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).

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[2026-06-14] - Master-Pattern KaTeX Fix & Deep Blueprint Injection (#ISSUE-017)

Added

• Detailed Mathematics in Operational Blueprints: Expanded and injected formal quantitative formulas, parameter definitions, and estimation window thresholds inside:
  • components/modules/scanner/ScannerBlueprintModal.tsx (Welles Wilder RSI-14 EMA smoothing, 52-Week Drop thresholds, and FMP Valuation Overlay to Forward P/E transitions).
  • components/modules/events/EconometricsBlueprintModal.tsx (Event Studies layout, 120-day Estimation Window, 10-day Gap Isolation Shield, and Cumulative Abnormal Returns CAR aggregation formulas).
  • components/modules/tech/TechBlueprintModal.tsx (AI CapEx cycle parameters, SEC 10-Q filing parsers, Monetization Gap, and Supply-Chain Velocity Index formulas).

Modified

• KaTeX "Kaputt-repariert" Mitigation: Audited and rewritten components/modules/crypto/CryptoMathModal.tsx to completely resolve formatting corruption by establishing the golden master single-backslash pattern and converting all double backslashes (\\) in math strings to single backslashes (\), with correct matrix formatting.
• System-Wide Variable Unification: Unified and wrapped all mathematical variables (such as S_1, S_2, S_3, S_i, S_j, w, k in Crypto, and other parameters across Scanner, Macro, and Econometrics modals) inside native <InlineMath> components.
• QUANT_ROADMAP.md: Updated Section 1 and registered Phase 5.5.

Active Bugs / Compile Status

• Active Bugs: None.
• Type Checker Status: Verified 100% clean type verification (npx tsc --noEmit returns exit code 0).