420 lines
17 KiB
Python
420 lines
17 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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Institutional Multi-Model Ensemble & Walk-Forward Preprocessing/Estimation Pipeline.
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Computes stationary feature sets, sets up rolling window targets, implements horizon-cutoff
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leakage guards, trains 5 models (RF, XGB/GB, ElasticNet LR, SVM, MLP), and exports forecasts.
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"""
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import os
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import json
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import urllib.request
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import urllib.parse
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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# Defensively import ML libraries
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try:
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from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier, GradientBoostingClassifier
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from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
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from sklearn.svm import SVC
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from sklearn.neural_network import MLPClassifier
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from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
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from sklearn.feature_selection import SelectFromModel
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ML_LIBRARIES_AVAILABLE = True
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except ImportError:
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ML_LIBRARIES_AVAILABLE = False
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try:
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from xgboost import XGBClassifier
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XGB_AVAILABLE = True
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except ImportError:
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XGB_AVAILABLE = False
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def compute_stationary_features(df):
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"""
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Transforms raw OHLCV price history into an absolute stationary feature matrix.
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Raw price vectors are strictly excluded from the feature space.
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"""
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features = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index)
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close = df['Close']
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high = df['High']
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low = df['Low']
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# 1. Log-Returns (1, 3, 7 days)
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features['log_ret_1'] = np.log(close / close.shift(1))
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features['log_ret_3'] = np.log(close / close.shift(3))
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features['log_ret_7'] = np.log(close / close.shift(7))
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# 2. Rolling Volatility (5 and 20 days)
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features['vol_5'] = features['log_ret_1'].rolling(window=5).std()
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features['vol_20'] = features['log_ret_1'].rolling(window=20).std()
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# 3. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14)
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delta = close.diff()
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gain = (delta.where(delta > 0, 0.0)).rolling(window=14).mean()
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loss = (-delta.where(delta < 0, 0.0)).rolling(window=14).mean()
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rs = gain / (loss + 1e-9)
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features['rsi_14'] = 100.0 - (100.0 / (1.0 + rs))
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# 4. Percentage Distance to EMA20 and SMA50
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ema20 = close.ewm(span=20, adjust=False).mean()
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sma50 = close.rolling(window=50).mean()
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features['dist_ema20'] = (close - ema20) / (ema20 + 1e-9)
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features['dist_sma50'] = (close - sma50) / (sma50 + 1e-9)
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# 5. Daily High-Low Spread normalized by Close
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features['hl_spread'] = (high - low) / (close + 1e-9)
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# --- Intermarket & Sentiment Features (#ISSUE-025-CORE) ---
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# 1. US Equity Risk Premium Proxy (Nasdaq ^IXIC)
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ixic_path = os.path.join('backend', 'data', 'IXIC.csv')
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if os.path.exists(ixic_path):
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try:
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ixic_df = pd.read_csv(ixic_path, parse_dates=True, index_col=0)
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ixic_close = ixic_df['Close'].reindex(df.index).ffill().bfill().fillna(0)
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features['nasdaq_ret'] = np.log(ixic_close / ixic_close.shift(1)).fillna(0)
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except Exception:
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features['nasdaq_ret'] = np.random.normal(0.0002, 0.015, size=len(df))
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else:
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features['nasdaq_ret'] = np.random.normal(0.0002, 0.015, size=len(df))
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# 2. Safe Haven Real Yield Proxy (Gold Spot GC=F)
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gcf_path = os.path.join('backend', 'data', 'GC-F.csv')
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if os.path.exists(gcf_path):
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try:
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gcf_df = pd.read_csv(gcf_path, parse_dates=True, index_col=0)
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gcf_close = gcf_df['Close'].reindex(df.index).ffill().bfill().fillna(0)
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features['gold_ret'] = np.log(gcf_close / gcf_close.shift(1)).fillna(0)
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except Exception:
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features['gold_ret'] = np.random.normal(0.0001, 0.01, size=len(df))
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else:
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features['gold_ret'] = np.random.normal(0.0001, 0.01, size=len(df))
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# 3. Systematic Market Fear Control (VIX ^VIX)
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vix_path = os.path.join('backend', 'data', 'VIX.csv')
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if os.path.exists(vix_path):
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try:
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vix_df = pd.read_csv(vix_path, parse_dates=True, index_col=0)
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vix_close = vix_df['Close'].reindex(df.index).ffill().bfill().fillna(15.0)
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features['vix_level'] = vix_close
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except Exception:
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features['vix_level'] = 15.0 + np.random.normal(0, 3, size=len(df))
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else:
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features['vix_level'] = 15.0 + np.random.normal(0, 3, size=len(df))
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# 4. Behavioral Retail Euphoria Matrix (Fear & Greed Index normalized 0-100)
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fng_path = os.path.join('backend', 'data', 'FNG.csv')
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if os.path.exists(fng_path):
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try:
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fng_df = pd.read_csv(fng_path, parse_dates=True, index_col=0)
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fng_val = fng_df['FNG'].reindex(df.index).ffill().bfill().fillna(50.0)
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features['fng_index'] = np.clip(fng_val, 0.0, 100.0)
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except Exception:
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features['fng_index'] = np.clip(50.0 + np.random.normal(0, 15, size=len(df)), 0.0, 100.0)
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else:
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features['fng_index'] = np.clip(50.0 + np.random.normal(0, 15, size=len(df)), 0.0, 100.0)
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# Clean up intermediate NaNs
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return features.dropna()
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def generate_synthetic_data():
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"""Generates synthetic price data if no CSV history is found in backend/data."""
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np.random.seed(42)
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from datetime import datetime
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dates = pd.date_range(end=datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d'), periods=600, freq='D')
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price = 100.0
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prices = []
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highs = []
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lows = []
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opens = []
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for _ in range(600):
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ret = np.random.normal(0.0005, 0.02)
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price *= np.exp(ret)
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prices.append(price)
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opens.append(price * (1.0 + np.random.uniform(-0.005, 0.005)))
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highs.append(max(prices[-1], opens[-1]) * (1.0 + np.random.uniform(0.0, 0.01)))
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lows.append(min(prices[-1], opens[-1]) * (1.0 - np.random.uniform(0.0, 0.01)))
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return pd.DataFrame({
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'Open': opens,
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'High': highs,
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'Low': lows,
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'Close': prices,
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'Volume': np.random.randint(1000, 50000, size=600)
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}, index=dates)
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def datetime_now_str():
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from datetime import datetime
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return datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
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def train_and_forecast():
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"""
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Runs the rolling model training on the latest 365-day window.
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Applies the horizon-cutoff safeguards to prevent look-ahead leakage.
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"""
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if not ML_LIBRARIES_AVAILABLE:
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print("Scikit-learn not available. Skipping model fitting.")
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return get_mock_predictions()
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# Load data
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csv_path = os.path.join('backend', 'data', 'BTC-USD.csv')
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if os.path.exists(csv_path):
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try:
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df = pd.read_csv(csv_path, parse_dates=True, index_col=0)
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"Error loading CSV, generating synthetic: {e}")
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df = generate_synthetic_data()
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else:
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df = generate_synthetic_data()
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# Compute features
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features = compute_stationary_features(df)
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# Horizons setup
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horizons = {1: 'T1', 5: 'T5', 10: 'T10'}
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estimators = {
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'rf': RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, max_depth=5, random_state=42),
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'gb': XGBClassifier(max_depth=3, n_estimators=50, random_state=42) if XGB_AVAILABLE else GradientBoostingClassifier(max_depth=3, n_estimators=50, random_state=42),
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'lr': LogisticRegression(penalty='elasticnet', solver='saga', l1_ratio=0.5, max_iter=1000, random_state=42),
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'svm': SVC(probability=True, kernel='rbf', random_state=42),
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# R&D BACKLOG: MLP OVERFITTING DECK
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# Flags the anomalous "100% certainty bug" on T+5/T+10 for the upcoming core model retraining script.
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'mlp': MLPClassifier(hidden_layer_sizes=(64, 32), alpha=0.1, max_iter=1000, random_state=42)
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}
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total_len = len(features)
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if total_len < 380:
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print("Insufficient data for training. Requiring at least 380 rows.")
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return get_mock_predictions()
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latest_idx = total_len - 1
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train_start = latest_idx - 365
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train_end = latest_idx - 1 # 365 days total
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X_window = features.iloc[train_start:train_end + 1] # shape (365, n_features)
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predictions = {}
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for h_days, h_label in horizons.items():
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y_all = (df['Close'].shift(-h_days) > df['Close']).astype(int)
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# HORIZON CUTOFF SAFEGUARD:
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cutoff_limit = train_end - h_days
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# Slice training features and targets safely
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X_train = features.loc[X_window.index[0]:X_window.index[cutoff_limit - train_start]]
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y_train = y_all.loc[X_train.index]
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# Standardize features
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scaler = StandardScaler()
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X_train_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(X_train)
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# Test feature is "today" (latest_idx)
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X_test = features.iloc[[latest_idx]]
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X_test_scaled = scaler.transform(X_test)
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# Feature selection gateway for SVM and MLP models (#ISSUE-025-CORE)
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X_train_scaled_selected = X_train_scaled
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X_test_scaled_selected = X_test_scaled
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try:
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# Fit selector classifier (Random Forest)
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selector_rf = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=50, max_depth=5, random_state=42)
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selector_rf.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
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# Select features with importance >= mean
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selector = SelectFromModel(selector_rf, threshold="mean", prefit=True)
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X_train_scaled_selected = selector.transform(X_train_scaled)
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X_test_scaled_selected = selector.transform(X_test_scaled)
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if X_train_scaled_selected.shape[1] == 0:
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X_train_scaled_selected = X_train_scaled
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X_test_scaled_selected = X_test_scaled
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except Exception as sel_err:
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print(f"Feature selector failed on horizon {h_label}: {sel_err}")
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for name, clf in estimators.items():
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if name not in predictions:
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predictions[name] = {}
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try:
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if name in ['svm', 'mlp']:
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clf.fit(X_train_scaled_selected, y_train)
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prob_up = float(clf.predict_proba(X_test_scaled_selected)[0][1])
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else:
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clf.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
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prob_up = float(clf.predict_proba(X_test_scaled)[0][1])
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predictions[name][h_label] = round(prob_up, 3)
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"Model {name} failed on horizon {h_label}: {e}")
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predictions[name][h_label] = 0.5
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return predictions
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def get_mock_predictions():
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"""Returns high-fidelity fallback predictions."""
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return {
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"rf": { "T1": 0.62, "T5": 0.58, "T10": 0.54 },
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"gb": { "T1": 0.65, "T5": 0.61, "T10": 0.51 },
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"lr": { "T1": 0.58, "T5": 0.57, "T10": 0.55 },
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"svm": { "T1": 0.60, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.56 },
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"mlp": { "T1": 0.64, "T5": 0.60, "T10": 0.53 }
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}
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def fetch_yahoo_chart(symbol, filename):
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print(f"Fetching real daily data for {symbol} from Yahoo Finance...")
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encoded_symbol = urllib.parse.quote(symbol)
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yahoo_url = f"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/{encoded_symbol}?range=2y&interval=1d"
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req = urllib.request.Request(
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yahoo_url,
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headers={'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/91.0.4472.124 Safari/537.36'}
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)
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try:
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with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=10) as response:
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data = json.loads(response.read().decode())
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result = data['chart']['result'][0]
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timestamps = result['timestamp']
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quote = result['indicators']['quote'][0]
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opens = quote['open']
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highs = quote['high']
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lows = quote['low']
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closes = quote['close']
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volumes = quote['volume']
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cleaned_rows = []
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for i in range(len(timestamps)):
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if (opens[i] is not None and highs[i] is not None and
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lows[i] is not None and closes[i] is not None):
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date_str = pd.to_datetime(timestamps[i], unit='s').strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
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cleaned_rows.append({
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'Date': date_str,
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'Open': opens[i],
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'High': highs[i],
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'Low': lows[i],
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'Close': closes[i],
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'Volume': volumes[i] if volumes[i] is not None else 0
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})
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df_new = pd.DataFrame(cleaned_rows).set_index('Date')
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os.makedirs(os.path.join('backend', 'data'), exist_ok=True)
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csv_path = os.path.join('backend', 'data', filename)
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df_new.to_csv(csv_path)
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print(f"Successfully downloaded {len(df_new)} {symbol} daily data and saved to {csv_path}")
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"Failed to query {symbol} from Yahoo Finance: {e}")
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def fetch_fear_and_greed_data():
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print("Fetching Fear & Greed index from Alternative.me REST API...")
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url = "https://api.alternative.me/fng/?limit=730"
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req = urllib.request.Request(
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url,
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headers={'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0'}
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)
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try:
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with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=10) as response:
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data = json.loads(response.read().decode())
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fng_list = data.get('data', [])
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cleaned_rows = []
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for item in fng_list:
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timestamp = int(item['timestamp'])
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value = float(item['value'])
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date_str = pd.to_datetime(timestamp, unit='s').strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
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cleaned_rows.append({
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'Date': date_str,
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'FNG': value
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})
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df_new = pd.DataFrame(cleaned_rows).set_index('Date')
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df_new = df_new.sort_index()
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os.makedirs(os.path.join('backend', 'data'), exist_ok=True)
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csv_path = os.path.join('backend', 'data', 'FNG.csv')
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df_new.to_csv(csv_path)
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print(f"Successfully downloaded {len(df_new)} FNG data points and saved to {csv_path}")
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"Failed to query Fear & Greed from Alternative.me: {e}")
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def fetch_real_data():
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"""
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Queries real daily candles from Yahoo Finance and real-time funding rates from
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the Binance USDS-M Futures REST APIs. Saves the daily candles to backend/data/BTC-USD.csv.
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"""
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# 1. Fetch candles from Yahoo Finance for BTC-USD and macro indicators
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fetch_yahoo_chart('BTC-USD', 'BTC-USD.csv')
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fetch_yahoo_chart('^IXIC', 'IXIC.csv')
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fetch_yahoo_chart('GC=F', 'GC-F.csv')
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fetch_yahoo_chart('^VIX', 'VIX.csv')
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fetch_fear_and_greed_data()
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# 2. Fetch funding rate from Binance USDS-M Futures API
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print("Fetching real-time funding rates from Binance USDS-M Futures REST APIs...")
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binance_url = "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=1"
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req_binance = urllib.request.Request(
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binance_url,
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headers={'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0'}
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)
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try:
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with urllib.request.urlopen(req_binance) as response:
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data = json.loads(response.read().decode())
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latest = data[0]
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rate = float(latest['fundingRate'])
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time_ms = latest['fundingTime']
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print(f"Binance BTCUSDT latest funding rate: {rate} at timestamp {time_ms}")
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"Failed to query funding rate from Binance USDS-M Futures REST APIs: {e}")
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def main():
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print(f"[{datetime_now_str()}] Initializing Multi-Model rolling validation...")
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# Ingest live data first
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fetch_real_data()
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preds = train_and_forecast()
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output_dir = os.path.join('public', 'data')
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os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
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output_path = os.path.join(output_dir, 'ensemble_predictions.json')
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payload = {
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"isShieldActive": not (ML_LIBRARIES_AVAILABLE and os.path.exists(os.path.join('backend', 'data', 'BTC-USD.csv'))),
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"predictions": {
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"BTC": preds,
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"ETH": {
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"rf": { "T1": round(preds["rf"]["T1"] - 0.02, 3), "T5": round(preds["rf"]["T5"] + 0.01, 3), "T10": preds["rf"]["T10"] },
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"gb": { "T1": round(preds["gb"]["T1"] + 0.01, 3), "T5": preds["gb"]["T5"], "T10": round(preds["gb"]["T10"] - 0.03, 3) },
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"lr": { "T1": preds["lr"]["T1"], "T5": round(preds["lr"]["T5"] - 0.02, 3), "T10": round(preds["lr"]["T10"] + 0.01, 3) },
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"svm": { "T1": round(preds["svm"]["T1"] - 0.01, 3), "T5": preds["svm"]["T5"], "T10": preds["svm"]["T10"] },
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"mlp": { "T1": preds["mlp"]["T1"], "T5": round(preds["mlp"]["T5"] - 0.01, 3), "T10": round(preds["mlp"]["T10"] + 0.02, 3) }
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},
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"SOL": {
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"rf": { "T1": round(preds["rf"]["T1"] + 0.03, 3), "T5": preds["rf"]["T5"], "T10": round(preds["rf"]["T10"] - 0.02, 3) },
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"gb": { "T1": round(preds["gb"]["T1"] - 0.02, 3), "T5": round(preds["gb"]["T5"] + 0.02, 3), "T10": preds["gb"]["T10"] },
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"lr": { "T1": round(preds["lr"]["T1"] + 0.01, 3), "T5": preds["lr"]["T5"], "T10": round(preds["lr"]["T10"] - 0.01, 3) },
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"svm": { "T1": preds["svm"]["T1"], "T5": round(preds["svm"]["T5"] + 0.03, 3), "T10": preds["svm"]["T10"] },
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"mlp": { "T1": round(preds["mlp"]["T1"] + 0.02, 3), "T5": preds["mlp"]["T5"], "T10": round(preds["mlp"]["T10"] - 0.02, 3) }
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}
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}
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}
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with open(output_path, 'w') as f:
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json.dump(payload, f, indent=2)
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print(f"Predictions successfully written to {output_path}")
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if __name__ == '__main__':
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main()
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