603 lines
30 KiB
TypeScript
603 lines
30 KiB
TypeScript
'use client';
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import React, { useState, useEffect, useMemo } from 'react';
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import { LineChart, Line, ResponsiveContainer } from 'recharts';
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import 'katex/dist/katex.min.css';
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import MacroMathModal from './MacroMathModal';
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import MacroBlueprintModal from './MacroBlueprintModal';
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import {
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TrendingUp, Landmark, AlertCircle, BookOpen, Percent,
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ArrowDownRight, ArrowUpRight, Minus, Activity, ShieldAlert, Coins,
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ChevronDown, ChevronUp
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} from 'lucide-react';
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interface IndicatorDataPoint {
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date: string;
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value: number;
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}
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interface MacroIndicator {
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name: string;
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unit: string;
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category: string;
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current: number;
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previous: number;
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trend: 'UP' | 'DOWN' | 'FLAT';
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data: IndicatorDataPoint[];
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}
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interface MacroDataPayload {
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dates: string[];
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indicators: Record<string, MacroIndicator>;
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liveDataAvailable: boolean;
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timestamp: number;
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}
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export default function MacroIndicatorsDemo() {
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const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);
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const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null);
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const [payload, setPayload] = useState<MacroDataPayload | null>(null);
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const [isMathModalOpen, setIsMathModalOpen] = useState(false);
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const [isBlueprintModalOpen, setIsBlueprintModalOpen] = useState(false);
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const [isAccordionOpen, setIsAccordionOpen] = useState(false); // Collapsible accordion closed by default
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useEffect(() => {
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const fetchIndicators = async () => {
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setLoading(true);
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setError(null);
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try {
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const response = await fetch('/api/macro/indicators');
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if (response.ok) {
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const data = await response.json();
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setPayload(data);
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} else {
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setError('Error fetching macroeconomic indicators.');
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}
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} catch (err) {
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console.error('Fetch macro indicators error:', err);
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setError('Network error loading macroeconomic data.');
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} finally {
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setLoading(false);
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}
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};
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fetchIndicators();
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}, []);
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// Compute Fed Net Liquidity Proxy dynamically across the 24 months
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// Formula: Net Liquidity = Fed Assets (T$) - TGA (B$/1000) - RRP (B$/1000)
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const netLiquidityIndicator = useMemo(() => {
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if (!payload?.indicators?.fedBalanceSheet || !payload?.indicators?.tga || !payload?.indicators?.rrp) {
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return null;
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}
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const fedBalance = payload.indicators.fedBalanceSheet;
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const tga = payload.indicators.tga;
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const rrp = payload.indicators.rrp;
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const netLiquidityData: IndicatorDataPoint[] = fedBalance.data.map((point, idx) => {
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const assets = point.value;
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const tgaVal = tga.data[idx]?.value || 0;
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const rrpVal = rrp.data[idx]?.value || 0;
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// Convert B$ to T$
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const liq = assets - (tgaVal + rrpVal) / 1000;
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return {
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date: point.date,
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value: parseFloat(liq.toFixed(3))
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};
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});
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const len = netLiquidityData.length;
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const current = netLiquidityData[len - 1].value;
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const previous = netLiquidityData[len - 2].value;
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let trend: 'UP' | 'DOWN' | 'FLAT' = 'FLAT';
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if (current > previous) trend = 'UP';
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if (current < previous) trend = 'DOWN';
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return {
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name: 'Federal Reserve Net Liquidity Proxy',
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unit: 'T$',
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category: 'Central Banks & Liquidity',
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current,
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previous,
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trend,
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data: netLiquidityData
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} as MacroIndicator;
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}, [payload]);
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if (loading) {
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return (
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<div className="bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl p-8 text-slate-100 shadow-xl min-h-[450px] flex flex-col items-center justify-center space-y-4">
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<div className="w-10 h-10 rounded-full border-2 border-indigo-500 border-t-transparent animate-spin" />
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<div className="text-slate-400 text-sm font-mono animate-pulse">Loading macroeconomic data archive...</div>
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</div>
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);
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}
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if (error || !payload) {
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return (
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<div className="bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl p-6 text-slate-100 shadow-xl min-h-[400px] flex items-center justify-center">
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<div className="text-rose-400 font-semibold flex items-center gap-2">
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<AlertCircle className="w-5 h-5" /> {error || 'Error loading data.'}
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</div>
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</div>
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);
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}
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const indicators = payload.indicators;
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// Safe destructuring of all 21 indicators to guarantee no undefined layout shifts
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const {
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cpiYoY, coreCpi, ppi, savingsRate, ccDelinquency,
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nfp, unemployment, joblessClaims,
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fedFunds, ecbRefi, fedBalanceSheet, m2, rrp, tga, buffett,
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us10y, yieldSpread, hySpread, housingStarts, mortgageApps, caseShiller
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} = indicators;
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// Compute Ampel (traffic light) health states
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const getCard1Status = () => {
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const cpiVal = cpiYoY?.current ?? 0;
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const ccVal = ccDelinquency?.current ?? 0;
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const saveVal = savingsRate?.current ?? 5;
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if (cpiVal >= 3.0 || ccVal > 4.5 || saveVal < 3.0) return 'RED';
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if (cpiVal >= 2.5 || ccVal > 3.5 || saveVal < 4.0) return 'AMBER';
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return 'GREEN';
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};
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const getCard2Status = () => {
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const bufVal = buffett?.current ?? 0;
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const m2Trend = m2?.trend ?? 'FLAT';
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if (bufVal > 150.0 || m2Trend === 'DOWN') return 'RED';
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if (bufVal > 130.0 || (rrp && rrp.current < 400)) return 'AMBER';
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return 'GREEN';
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};
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const getCard3Status = () => {
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const yieldVal = yieldSpread?.current ?? 0;
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const hyVal = hySpread?.current ?? 0;
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if (yieldVal < 0.0 || hyVal > 5.0) return 'RED';
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if (yieldVal < 0.1 || hyVal > 4.0) return 'AMBER';
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return 'GREEN';
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};
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const card1Status = getCard1Status();
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const card2Status = getCard2Status();
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const card3Status = getCard3Status();
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// Helper to color trends/values based on macroeconomic threshold rules
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const getValHighlightClass = (key: string, val: number, trend: string) => {
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if (key === 'hySpread') {
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return val > 5.0 ? 'text-rose-400 font-bold animate-pulse' : 'text-slate-100';
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}
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if (key === 'yieldSpread') {
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return val < 0.0 ? 'text-rose-500 font-bold' : 'text-emerald-400';
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}
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if (key === 'cpiYoY' || key === 'coreCpi') {
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if (val <= 2.5) return 'text-emerald-400 font-semibold';
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if (val >= 3.0) return 'text-rose-400';
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}
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if (key === 'm2' && trend === 'DOWN') {
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return 'text-rose-400 font-bold animate-pulse';
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}
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if (key === 'rrp' && val < 400) {
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return 'text-rose-400';
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}
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if (key === 'buffett' && val > 150.0) {
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return 'text-rose-400 font-bold animate-pulse';
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}
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if (key === 'ccDelinquency' && val > 4.5) {
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return 'text-rose-400 font-bold animate-pulse';
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}
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if (key === 'savingsRate' && val < 3.0) {
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return 'text-rose-400 font-bold';
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}
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return 'text-slate-100';
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};
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// Helper for trend icons
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const renderTrendIcon = (trend: 'UP' | 'DOWN' | 'FLAT', key: string) => {
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const baseClass = "w-4 h-4 inline-block align-middle";
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const inverseIndicators = ['cpiYoY', 'coreCpi', 'ppi', 'unemployment', 'joblessClaims', 'hySpread', 'ccDelinquency', 'buffett'];
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const isInverse = inverseIndicators.includes(key);
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if (trend === 'UP') {
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return <ArrowUpRight className={`${baseClass} ${isInverse ? 'text-rose-400' : 'text-emerald-400'}`} />;
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}
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if (trend === 'DOWN') {
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return <ArrowDownRight className={`${baseClass} ${isInverse ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-rose-400'}`} />;
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}
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return <Minus className={`${baseClass} text-slate-500`} />;
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};
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// Render individual row helper
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const renderRow = (key: string, ind: MacroIndicator) => {
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if (!ind) return null;
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const inverseIndicators = ['cpiYoY', 'coreCpi', 'ppi', 'unemployment', 'joblessClaims', 'hySpread', 'ccDelinquency', 'buffett'];
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const isInverse = inverseIndicators.includes(key);
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const strokeColor = (ind.trend === 'UP' && isInverse) || (ind.trend === 'DOWN' && !isInverse) ? '#f43f5e' : '#10b981';
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return (
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<div key={key} className="bg-slate-950/40 border border-slate-850 rounded-xl p-3 flex justify-between items-center hover:bg-slate-950/60 transition-colors">
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<div className="space-y-0.5 max-w-[130px]">
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<div className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-200 truncate" title={ind.name}>{ind.name}</div>
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<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-500 font-mono">Previous: {ind.previous === null || ind.previous === undefined ? '' : ind.previous}{ind.unit}</div>
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</div>
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{/* Micro Recharts Sparkline */}
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<div className="w-20 h-8">
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<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
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<LineChart data={ind.data}>
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<Line
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type="monotone"
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dataKey="value"
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stroke={strokeColor}
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strokeWidth={1.5}
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dot={false}
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/>
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</LineChart>
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</ResponsiveContainer>
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</div>
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<div className="text-right">
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<div className={`font-mono text-sm font-bold ${getValHighlightClass(key, ind.current, ind.trend)}`}>
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{ind.current}{ind.unit}
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</div>
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<div className="text-[9px] flex items-center justify-end gap-0.5">
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{renderTrendIcon(ind.trend, key)}
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<span className="text-slate-500 font-mono capitalize">{ind.trend.toLowerCase()}</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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);
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};
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return (
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<div className="space-y-6">
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{/* ⚠️ Dynamic Rate-Limit Override Warning Banner */}
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{!payload.liveDataAvailable && (
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<div className="bg-rose-950/40 border border-rose-800/80 text-rose-400 text-xs rounded-xl p-4 flex items-center gap-3 shadow-[0_0_15px_rgba(244,63,94,0.15)]">
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<AlertCircle className="w-5 h-5 text-rose-400 shrink-0" />
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<div className="flex-1">
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<span className="font-bold font-mono uppercase tracking-wider block mb-0.5">[⚠️ API Limit - Historical Archive Active]</span>
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Real-time data retrieval (June 2026) is throttled due to rate limits (FMP HTTP 429). The system is operating in a secure, buffered historical archive mode.
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</div>
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</div>
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)}
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{/* SECTION 1: Header & Control Bar */}
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<div className="bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl p-6 text-slate-100 shadow-xl relative overflow-hidden">
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<div className="absolute top-0 right-0 w-32 h-32 bg-indigo-500/10 rounded-full blur-3xl -z-10" />
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<div className="flex flex-col md:flex-row justify-between items-start md:items-center gap-4">
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<div className="space-y-1">
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<span className="text-indigo-400 text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">Macroeconomics Silo</span>
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<h2 className="text-2xl font-extrabold text-white flex items-center gap-2">
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<Landmark className="text-indigo-400 w-6 h-6" /> Macroeconomic Indicators & Credit Silo
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</h2>
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<p className="text-xs text-slate-400">
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Analyzes cycles, liquidity flows, and yield curves over the past 24 months.
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</p>
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</div>
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<div className="flex items-center gap-3 w-full md:w-auto justify-end">
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<button
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onClick={() => setIsMathModalOpen(true)}
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className="flex items-center gap-1.5 px-4 py-2.5 rounded-xl bg-slate-950/80 hover:bg-slate-900 border border-slate-800 hover:border-slate-700 transition-all font-semibold text-xs tracking-wider text-indigo-400 w-full md:w-auto justify-center h-11 cursor-pointer"
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>
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<BookOpen className="w-4 h-4" />
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<span>📖 Quantitative Handbook</span>
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</button>
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<button
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onClick={() => setIsBlueprintModalOpen(true)}
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className="flex items-center gap-1.5 px-4 py-2.5 rounded-xl bg-slate-950/80 hover:bg-slate-900 border border-slate-800 hover:border-slate-700 transition-all font-semibold text-xs tracking-wider text-indigo-400 w-full md:w-auto justify-center h-11 cursor-pointer animate-pulse-slow"
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>
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<Activity className="w-4 h-4" />
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<span>⚙️ Operational Blueprint</span>
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</button>
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<div className="bg-slate-950/80 border border-slate-800 rounded-xl px-4 py-2 text-right shrink-0 h-11 flex flex-col justify-center">
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<div className="text-[9px] text-slate-555 uppercase font-mono">Last Update</div>
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<div className="font-mono text-xs text-slate-300">
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{new Date(payload.timestamp).toLocaleTimeString()}
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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{/* 🏛️ SECTION 1.5: 3 Large Glowing Neon-Ampel Cards */}
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<div className="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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{/* CARD 1: Inflation & Konsum-Stress */}
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<div className={`bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border rounded-2xl p-5 text-slate-100 shadow-xl transition-all relative overflow-hidden ${
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card1Status === 'RED' ? 'border-rose-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(244,63,94,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-rose-950/10' :
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card1Status === 'AMBER' ? 'border-amber-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(245,158,11,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-amber-950/10' :
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'border-emerald-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(16,185,129,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-emerald-950/10'
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}`}>
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<div className="absolute top-0 right-0 w-24 h-24 bg-rose-500/5 rounded-full blur-2xl -z-10" />
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<div className="flex justify-between items-start">
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<div className="space-y-1">
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<span className="text-slate-400 text-[10px] font-mono uppercase tracking-wider">Category 1</span>
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<h4 className="text-sm font-bold text-slate-200">Inflation & Consumer Stress</h4>
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</div>
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{/* Glowing Neon-Ampel Light */}
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<div className={`w-3 h-3 rounded-full ${
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card1Status === 'RED' ? 'bg-rose-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(244,63,94,0.85)] animate-pulse' :
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card1Status === 'AMBER' ? 'bg-amber-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(245,158,11,0.85)] animate-pulse' :
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'bg-emerald-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(16,185,129,0.85)] animate-pulse'
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}`} />
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</div>
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<div className="mt-4 space-y-3">
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<div className="text-xs text-slate-400">
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Risk Status:{' '}
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<span className={`font-bold ${
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card1Status === 'RED' ? 'text-rose-400' : card1Status === 'AMBER' ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-emerald-400'
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}`}>
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{card1Status === 'RED' ? '🚨 Critical Consumer Pressure' : card1Status === 'AMBER' ? '⚠️ Elevated Risk' : '✅ Stable'}
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</span>
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</div>
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<div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 pt-2 border-t border-slate-800/60 text-center font-mono">
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<div>
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<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500">CPI</div>
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<div className={`text-xs font-bold ${cpiYoY && cpiYoY.current >= 3.0 ? 'text-rose-400' : 'text-slate-200'}`}>
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{cpiYoY ? cpiYoY.current.toFixed(1) : '0.0'}%
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500">Savings Rate</div>
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<div className={`text-xs font-bold ${savingsRate && savingsRate.current < 3.0 ? 'text-rose-400' : 'text-slate-200'}`}>
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{savingsRate ? savingsRate.current.toFixed(1) : '0.0'}%
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500">Delinquencies</div>
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<div className={`text-xs font-bold ${ccDelinquency && ccDelinquency.current > 4.5 ? 'text-rose-400' : 'text-slate-200'}`}>
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{ccDelinquency ? ccDelinquency.current.toFixed(1) : '0.0'}%
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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{/* CARD 2: Bewertung & Liquidität */}
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<div className={`bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border rounded-2xl p-5 text-slate-100 shadow-xl transition-all relative overflow-hidden ${
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card2Status === 'RED' ? 'border-rose-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(244,63,94,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-rose-950/10' :
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card2Status === 'AMBER' ? 'border-amber-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(245,158,11,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-amber-950/10' :
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'border-emerald-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(16,185,129,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-emerald-950/10'
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}`}>
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<div className="absolute top-0 right-0 w-24 h-24 bg-indigo-500/5 rounded-full blur-2xl -z-10" />
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<div className="flex justify-between items-start">
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<div className="space-y-1">
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<span className="text-slate-400 text-[10px] font-mono uppercase tracking-wider">Category 2</span>
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<h4 className="text-sm font-bold text-slate-200">Valuation & Liquidity</h4>
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</div>
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{/* Glowing Neon-Ampel Light */}
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<div className={`w-3 h-3 rounded-full ${
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card2Status === 'RED' ? 'bg-rose-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(244,63,94,0.85)] animate-pulse' :
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card2Status === 'AMBER' ? 'bg-amber-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(245,158,11,0.85)] animate-pulse' :
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'bg-emerald-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(16,185,129,0.85)] animate-pulse'
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}`} />
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</div>
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<div className="mt-4 space-y-3">
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<div className="text-xs text-slate-400">
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Risk Status:{' '}
|
||
<span className={`font-bold ${
|
||
card2Status === 'RED' ? 'text-rose-400' : card2Status === 'AMBER' ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-emerald-400'
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{card2Status === 'RED' ? '🚨 Extreme Overvaluation' : card2Status === 'AMBER' ? '⚠️ Liquidity Squeeze' : '✅ Sufficient'}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-2 pt-2 border-t border-slate-800/60 text-center font-mono">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500">Buffett Indicator</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-xs font-bold ${buffett && buffett.current > 150.0 ? 'text-rose-400' : 'text-slate-200'}`}>
|
||
{buffett ? buffett.current.toFixed(1) : '0.0'}%
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500">Net Fed Liquidity</div>
|
||
<div className="text-xs font-bold text-indigo-300">
|
||
{netLiquidityIndicator ? netLiquidityIndicator.current.toFixed(2) : '0.0'} T$
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* CARD 3: Kredit- & Rezessionsrisiko */}
|
||
<div className={`bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border rounded-2xl p-5 text-slate-100 shadow-xl transition-all relative overflow-hidden ${
|
||
card3Status === 'RED' ? 'border-rose-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(244,63,94,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-rose-950/10' :
|
||
card3Status === 'AMBER' ? 'border-amber-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(245,158,11,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-amber-950/10' :
|
||
'border-emerald-500/30 shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(16,185,129,0.15)] bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-slate-900 to-emerald-950/10'
|
||
}`}>
|
||
<div className="absolute top-0 right-0 w-24 h-24 bg-emerald-500/5 rounded-full blur-2xl -z-10" />
|
||
<div className="flex justify-between items-start">
|
||
<div className="space-y-1">
|
||
<span className="text-slate-400 text-[10px] font-mono uppercase tracking-wider">Category 3</span>
|
||
<h4 className="text-sm font-bold text-slate-200">Credit & Recession Risk</h4>
|
||
</div>
|
||
{/* Glowing Neon-Ampel Light */}
|
||
<div className={`w-3 h-3 rounded-full ${
|
||
card3Status === 'RED' ? 'bg-rose-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(244,63,94,0.85)] animate-pulse' :
|
||
card3Status === 'AMBER' ? 'bg-amber-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(245,158,11,0.85)] animate-pulse' :
|
||
'bg-emerald-500 shadow-[0_0_12px_rgba(16,185,129,0.85)] animate-pulse'
|
||
}`} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="mt-4 space-y-3">
|
||
<div className="text-xs text-slate-400">
|
||
Risk Status:{' '}
|
||
<span className={`font-bold ${
|
||
card3Status === 'RED' ? 'text-rose-400' : card3Status === 'AMBER' ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-emerald-400'
|
||
}`}>
|
||
{card3Status === 'RED' ? '🚨 Recession Inversion' : card3Status === 'AMBER' ? '⚠️ Yield Curve Warning' : '✅ Stable'}
|
||
</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-2 pt-2 border-t border-slate-800/60 text-center font-mono">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500">2S10S Spread</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-xs font-bold ${yieldSpread && yieldSpread.current < 0 ? 'text-rose-400' : 'text-emerald-400'}`}>
|
||
{yieldSpread ? (yieldSpread.current >= 0 ? '+' : '') + yieldSpread.current.toFixed(2) : '0.00'}%
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500">High-Yield Spread</div>
|
||
<div className={`text-xs font-bold ${hySpread && hySpread.current > 5.0 ? 'text-rose-400' : 'text-slate-200'}`}>
|
||
{hySpread ? hySpread.current.toFixed(1) : '0.0'}%
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* SECTION 2: Accordion for Detailed Economic Data 3-Grid Panels */}
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900/40 backdrop-blur-md border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl overflow-hidden shadow-xl">
|
||
<button
|
||
onClick={() => setIsAccordionOpen(!isAccordionOpen)}
|
||
className="w-full px-6 py-4 flex items-center justify-between hover:bg-slate-900/60 transition-all font-bold text-sm text-slate-200 cursor-pointer"
|
||
>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<Activity className="w-5 h-5 text-indigo-400" />
|
||
<span>🏛️ Detailed Macroeconomic Indicators Ledger (21 Indicators)</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<span className="text-xs text-slate-500 font-mono">
|
||
{isAccordionOpen ? 'Collapse' : 'Expand'}
|
||
</span>
|
||
<div className="text-slate-400">
|
||
{isAccordionOpen ? <ChevronUp className="w-4 h-4" /> : <ChevronDown className="w-4 h-4" />}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</button>
|
||
|
||
{isAccordionOpen && (
|
||
<div className="p-6 border-t border-slate-800/80 space-y-6 bg-slate-950/20">
|
||
|
||
<div className="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||
|
||
{/* PANEL 1: Inflation & Wachstum */}
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl p-5 text-slate-100 shadow-xl space-y-4">
|
||
<div className="border-b border-slate-800 pb-3 flex items-center justify-between">
|
||
<h3 className="font-bold text-sm text-white flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<Activity className="w-4 h-4 text-emerald-400" /> Inflation & Growth
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-400 border border-emerald-500/20 px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-mono font-bold">Real Data</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div className="space-y-4">
|
||
{renderRow('cpiYoY', cpiYoY)}
|
||
{renderRow('coreCpi', coreCpi)}
|
||
{renderRow('ppi', ppi)}
|
||
{renderRow('savingsRate', savingsRate)}
|
||
{renderRow('ccDelinquency', ccDelinquency)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* PANEL 2: Zentralbanken & Liquidität */}
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl p-5 text-slate-100 shadow-xl space-y-4">
|
||
<div className="border-b border-slate-800 pb-3 flex items-center justify-between">
|
||
<h3 className="font-bold text-sm text-white flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<Coins className="w-4 h-4 text-indigo-400" /> Central Banks & Liquidity
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] bg-indigo-500/10 text-indigo-400 border border-indigo-500/20 px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-mono font-bold">M2 / RRP / TGA</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div className="space-y-4">
|
||
{renderRow('fedFunds', fedFunds)}
|
||
{renderRow('ecbRefi', ecbRefi)}
|
||
{renderRow('fedBalanceSheet', fedBalanceSheet)}
|
||
{renderRow('m2', m2)}
|
||
{renderRow('rrp', rrp)}
|
||
{renderRow('tga', tga)}
|
||
{renderRow('buffett', buffett)}
|
||
|
||
{/* Dynamic Calculated Net Liquidity Proxy Row */}
|
||
{netLiquidityIndicator && (
|
||
<div className="bg-indigo-950/20 border border-indigo-900/50 rounded-xl p-3 flex justify-between items-center hover:bg-indigo-950/30 transition-colors">
|
||
<div className="space-y-0.5 max-w-[130px]">
|
||
<div className="text-xs font-bold text-indigo-300 truncate" title={netLiquidityIndicator.name}>
|
||
Net Fed Liquidity
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] text-indigo-400/70 font-mono">Previous: {netLiquidityIndicator.previous}{netLiquidityIndicator.unit}</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Micro Recharts Sparkline */}
|
||
<div className="w-20 h-8">
|
||
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
|
||
<LineChart data={netLiquidityIndicator.data}>
|
||
<Line
|
||
type="monotone"
|
||
dataKey="value"
|
||
stroke="#818cf8"
|
||
strokeWidth={2}
|
||
dot={false}
|
||
/>
|
||
</LineChart>
|
||
</ResponsiveContainer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div className="text-right">
|
||
<div className="font-mono text-sm font-extrabold text-indigo-300">
|
||
{netLiquidityIndicator.current}{netLiquidityIndicator.unit}
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div className="text-[9px] flex items-center justify-end gap-0.5">
|
||
{renderTrendIcon(netLiquidityIndicator.trend, 'netLiquidity')}
|
||
<span className="text-indigo-400 font-mono capitalize">{netLiquidityIndicator.trend.toLowerCase()}</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* PANEL 3: Kredit- & Anleihemarkt */}
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl p-5 text-slate-100 shadow-xl space-y-4">
|
||
<div className="border-b border-slate-800 pb-3 flex items-center justify-between">
|
||
<h3 className="font-bold text-sm text-white flex items-center gap-2">
|
||
<ShieldAlert className="w-4 h-4 text-rose-400" /> Credit & Bond Market
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<span className="text-[10px] bg-rose-500/10 text-rose-400 border border-rose-500/20 px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-mono font-bold">Yield Curves & Spreads</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div className="space-y-4">
|
||
{renderRow('us10y', us10y)}
|
||
{renderRow('yieldSpread', yieldSpread)}
|
||
{renderRow('hySpread', hySpread)}
|
||
|
||
{/* Sub-section named "Real Estate & Mortgage Credit" */}
|
||
<div className="border-t border-slate-800/80 pt-4 mt-4">
|
||
<h4 className="text-xs font-bold text-indigo-400 uppercase tracking-wider font-mono mb-3 flex items-center gap-1.5">
|
||
<Landmark className="w-3.5 h-3.5" /> Real Estate & Mortgage Credit
|
||
</h4>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{renderRow('housingStarts', housingStarts)}
|
||
{renderRow('mortgageApps', mortgageApps)}
|
||
{renderRow('caseShiller', caseShiller)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
)}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* SECTION 3: Dynamic Macro analysis and explanation */}
|
||
<div className="bg-slate-900/60 backdrop-blur-md border border-slate-800 rounded-2xl p-6 text-slate-100 shadow-xl space-y-4">
|
||
<h3 className="font-bold text-sm text-slate-200">Systemic Macro & Credit Market Analysis</h3>
|
||
<p className="text-xs text-slate-400 leading-relaxed">
|
||
Yield curve inversions (e.g. when the <span className="text-indigo-400 font-semibold font-mono">2S10S Yield Spread</span> is negative) are historically reliable leading indicators of economic contractions. Currently, the spread is <span className="text-emerald-400 font-bold font-mono">{yieldSpread !== undefined ? (yieldSpread.current >= 0 ? '+' : '') + yieldSpread.current.toFixed(2) : '0.00'}%</span>. At the same time, the Buffett Indicator indicates an overvaluation of the US stock market relative to economic output. In the consumer sector, the combination of a low savings rate (<span className="text-amber-400 font-mono">{savingsRate !== undefined ? savingsRate.current.toFixed(1) : '0.0'}%</span>) and rising credit card delinquencies (<span className="text-rose-400 font-mono">{ccDelinquency !== undefined ? ccDelinquency.current.toFixed(1) : '0.0'}%</span>) suggests genuine distress, while the High-Yield credit spread (<span className="text-slate-300 font-bold font-mono">{hySpread !== undefined ? hySpread.current.toFixed(1) : '0.0'}%</span>) still indicates stability.
|
||
Monetary liquidity (<span className="font-bold text-indigo-300 font-mono">Net Fed Liquidity Proxy: {netLiquidityIndicator ? netLiquidityIndicator.current.toFixed(2) : '0.00'} T$</span>) acts as a central impulse: an increase in TGA volume or RRP usage drains liquidity from the banking system (headwind for equities/crypto), while a decrease in these items releases additional liquidity (tailwind for risk assets).
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<MacroMathModal isOpen={isMathModalOpen} onClose={() => setIsMathModalOpen(false)} />
|
||
<MacroBlueprintModal isOpen={isBlueprintModalOpen} onClose={() => setIsBlueprintModalOpen(false)} />
|
||
</div>
|
||
);
|
||
}
|