import React from 'react'; import { BookOpen, X, ShieldAlert, DollarSign, BarChart2, TrendingUp } from 'lucide-react'; import 'katex/dist/katex.min.css'; import { BlockMath, InlineMath } from 'react-katex'; interface WhaleMathModalProps { isOpen: boolean; onClose: () => void; } export default function WhaleMathModal({ isOpen, onClose }: WhaleMathModalProps) { React.useEffect(() => { const handleKeyDown = (e: KeyboardEvent) => { if (e.key === 'Escape') { onClose(); } }; if (isOpen) { window.addEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); } return () => { window.removeEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); }; }, [isOpen, onClose]); if (!isOpen) return null; return (
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English Quantitative Whale Screener & Conviction Handbook

13F Institutional Filing Tracking & Velocity of Conviction Matrix

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Executive Overview

The Whale Satellite Screener isolates high-conviction adjustments in portfolios managed by elite long-term value and small-cap investment firms (such as Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management and Chuck Akre's Akre Capital). By calculating the quarter-over-quarter relative portfolio weight adjustments, the system tracks the directional commitment ("Velocity of Conviction") of smart capital while adjusting for reporting lags and sector clustering.

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1. The 13F Reporting Lag Constraint

Institutional investment managers with over $100 million in Assets Under Management (AUM) are legally mandated by the SEC to submit Form 13F within 45 days after the end of each calendar quarter. This lag presents a structural challenge for quantitative models, as holdings data represents historical positions:

I. Retrospective Analysis: Positions disclosed on day reflect the portfolio state at day . As a result, short-term momentum models cannot directly trade 13F filings.
II. Informational Asymmetry: Because holdings are backward-looking, the screener is optimized for long-term fundamental tracking (holding periods exceeding 12 months) where the 45-day lag does not dilute the underlying investment thesis.
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2. Velocity of Conviction (VoC) Weighting

Rather than tracking the absolute number of shares bought or sold, the screener measures changes in the relative portfolio weight of each asset. This normalizes for AUM changes caused by overall market movements:

Velocity of Conviction (VoC) Delta:

Asset Portfolio Weight Calculation:

Where:
- is the portfolio weight of asset at the end of the current quarter (expressed as a percentage).
- is the portfolio weight of asset at the end of the previous quarter .
- is the market value of the position in asset as reported in the 13F filing for quarter .
- represents the total market value of all reported equity holdings in the filing for quarter (AUM proxy).

Strategic Rationale: A positive VoC delta indicates that the manager has actively allocated capital to the asset relative to other holdings, suggesting high-conviction buying. Conversely, a negative delta indicates relative allocation decreases, showing active selling or profit-taking.

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3. Institutional Clustering

Institutional clustering occurs when multiple high-conviction managers establish positions in the same security during the same period. The screener tracks cross-ownership patterns to detect when elite managers converge on specific investment clusters, which historically serves as a strong signal of structural undervaluation.

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