# Architect Handover Document (`ARCHITECT_HANDOVER.md`)

This document outlines the functional state of the Quant Terminal, the mathematical thresholds used by the HSL status triggers, and the structures of active data proxies.

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## 1. Functional State of the Station

The Quant Terminal operates with 7 primary functional modules mounted in [app/page.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/app/page.tsx):
1.  **Sandbox** (`activeTab === 'sandbox'`): Solves Swamy-Arora random effects regressions.
2.  **Scanner** (`activeTab === 'scanner'`): Visualizes live asset scanners.
3.  **Insider** (`activeTab === 'insider'`): Tracks corporate insider trades.
4.  **Krypto Bayes** (`activeTab === 'crypto'`): Implements Bayesian on-chain learning models, featuring a Walk-Forward Multi-Model Ensemble Radar (RF, XGB/GB, LR, SVM, MLP) and 15 independent Beta-Posterior trackers.
5.  **Ökonometrie** (`activeTab === 'events'`): Conducts econometric event studies.
6.  **Eco Indicators** (`activeTab === 'macro'`): Monitors 21 FRED macroeconomic and credit indicators.
7.  **AI Special Silo** (`activeTab === 'tech'`): Tracks the tech CapEx overinvestment cycle.

All endpoints support a 60-minute in-memory caching TTL.

---

## 2. Core Mathematical Thresholds & Status Triggers

Indicators in the cockpit cards use HSL-tailored status lights (Emerald-Green, Amber, Flashing Neon Rose-Red).

### Macroeconomics Silo (Module 6)
*   **Card 1 (Inflation & Consumer)**:
    *   `RED`: CPI Inflation YoY $\ge 3.0\%$, Credit Card Delinquencies $> 4.5\%$, or Personal Savings Rate $< 3.0\%$.
    *   `AMBER`: CPI Inflation $\ge 2.5\%$, Credit Card Delinquencies $> 3.5\%$, or Personal Savings Rate $< 4.0\%$.
    *   `GREEN`: Normal operations.
*   **Card 2 (Valuation & Liquidity)**:
    *   `RED`: Buffett Indicator Ratio $> 150\%$, or M2 money supply trend is `DOWN`.
    *   `AMBER`: Buffett Indicator Ratio $> 130\%$, or Reverse Repo (RRP) volume $< 400$B$.
    *   `GREEN`: Normal valuation limits.
*   **Card 3 (Yield Curve & Credit)**:
    *   `RED`: 2S10S yield spread is inverted ($< 0.0\%$), or High-Yield Credit Spread $> 5.0\%$.
    *   `AMBER`: 2S10S spread $< 0.1\%$, or High-Yield Credit Spread $> 4.0\%$.
    *   `GREEN`: Positive term structure.

### AI & Tech Silo (Module 7)
*   **Card 1 (Monetization Gap)**:
    *   `RED`: Minimum Monetization Gap among constituents $< -15\%$ (diminishing segment returns).
    *   `AMBER`: Minimum Monetization Gap $< 0\%$ (CapEx growth outstripping segment revenue growth).
    *   `GREEN`: Positive monetization gap (revenue growing faster than capital expenditures).
*   **Card 2 (Supply-Chain Velocity)**:
    *   `RED`: Velocity Index $< 1.8x$, or velocity trend is `DOWN` (buyers reducing forward commitments).
    *   `AMBER`: Velocity Index $< 3.0x$ (buyer commitments softening relative to supplier inventory).
    *   `GREEN`: Normal supply speeds ($\ge 3.0x$).
*   **Card 3 (Infrastructure Leverage)**:
    *   `RED`: Maximum CapEx-to-Depreciation Ratio $> 4.0x$, or maximum Debt-to-Equity Ratio $> 1.2$ (highly leveraged node expansion).
    *   `AMBER`: Maximum CapEx-to-Depreciation $> 2.5x$, or maximum Debt-to-Equity $> 0.8$.
    *   `GREEN`: Asset expansion supported by low-leverage ratios.

---

## 3. Active Data Proxy Models

### AI Special Silo API Response Schema (`/api/tech/ai`)
```json
{
  "dates": ["Q3-24", "Q4-24", "Q1-25", "Q2-25", "Q3-25", "Q4-25", "Q1-26", "Q2-26"],
  "liveDataAvailable": false,
  "timestamp": 1781274890000,
  "metrics": {
    "monetizationGap": {
      "name": "ROI-to-CapEx & Monetization Gap",
      "tickers": {
        "NVDA": {
          "current": -5.3,
          "previous": -4.2,
          "trend": "DOWN",
          "segmentRevenueGrowth": 3.1,
          "capexGrowth": 8.4,
          "roiToCapex": 2.6,
          "data": [
            { "quarter": "Q3-24", "monetizationGap": 0.0, "roiToCapex": 0.0, "segmentRevenueGrowth": 0.0, "capexGrowth": 0.0 }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    "supplyChain": {
      "name": "Nvidia Supply-Chain Velocity Index",
      "unit": "x",
      "currentVelocity": 2.2,
      "previousVelocity": 2.5,
      "currentTurnover": 5.7,
      "currentObligations": 18700,
      "trend": "DOWN",
      "data": [
        { "quarter": "Q3-24", "nvdaInvTurnover": 5.2, "aggregateObligations": 14500, "velocityIndex": 3.2 }
      ]
    },
    "infrastructure": {
      "name": "Tech Infrastructure Leverage & Cluster Expansion",
      "tickers": {
        "MSFT": {
          "currentDE": 0.3,
          "currentCapExDep": 3.9,
          "trendDE": "UP",
          "data": [
            { "quarter": "Q3-24", "de": 0.34, "capexDep": 3.2, "debt": 77800, "equity": 228900 }
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  }
}
```

### Crypto Multi-Model Ensemble API Schema (`/api/crypto/ensemble`)
```json
{
  "isShieldActive": true,
  "predictions": {
    "BTC": {
      "rf": { "T1": 0.62, "T5": 0.58, "T10": 0.54 },
      "gb": { "T1": 0.65, "T5": 0.61, "T10": 0.51 },
      "lr": { "T1": 0.58, "T5": 0.57, "T10": 0.55 },
      "svm": { "T1": 0.60, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.56 },
      "mlp": { "T1": 0.64, "T5": 0.60, "T10": 0.53 }
    },
    "ETH": {
      "rf": { "T1": 0.60, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.54 },
      "gb": { "T1": 0.66, "T5": 0.61, "T10": 0.48 },
      "lr": { "T1": 0.58, "T5": 0.55, "T10": 0.56 },
      "svm": { "T1": 0.59, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.56 },
      "mlp": { "T1": 0.64, "T5": 0.59, "T10": 0.55 }
    },
    "SOL": {
      "rf": { "T1": 0.65, "T5": 0.58, "T10": 0.52 },
      "gb": { "T1": 0.63, "T5": 0.63, "T10": 0.54 },
      "lr": { "T1": 0.59, "T5": 0.58, "T10": 0.54 },
      "svm": { "T1": 0.60, "T5": 0.62, "T10": 0.56 },
      "mlp": { "T1": 0.66, "T5": 0.60, "T10": 0.51 }
    }
  }
}
```