import React from 'react'; import { BookOpen } from 'lucide-react'; import 'katex/dist/katex.min.css'; import { BlockMath, InlineMath } from 'react-katex'; interface MacroMathModalProps { isOpen: boolean; onClose: () => void; } export default function MacroMathModal({ isOpen, onClose }: MacroMathModalProps) { React.useEffect(() => { const handleKeyDown = (e: KeyboardEvent) => { if (e.key === 'Escape') { onClose(); } }; if (isOpen) { window.addEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); } return () => { window.removeEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); }; }, [isOpen, onClose]); if (!isOpen) return null; return (
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Macroeconomics & Liquidity - Math & Logic Specification

Institutional Specification Manual

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6. Macroeconomic Indicators & Credit Vault

Details structural curves, monetary flows, and historical surprise indices.

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A. Yield Curve Spread Inversion Dynamics

Calculates the duration spread between short-term and long-term government yield rates. A negative spread represents structural inversion, often preceding a recession:

2S10S Yield Curve Spread:

where:
- is the yield rate of the 10-Year Treasury Bond.
- is the yield rate of the 2-Year Treasury Bond.

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B. Surprise Index Standardized Deviation

Measures how far an economic release deviates from general consensus expectations, scaled by the historical standard deviation of surprises:

Standardized Surprise Score:

where:
- is the released value for the economic indicator.
- is the median consensus forecast.
- is the historical standard deviation of forecast errors.

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C. Central Bank Net Liquidity Proxy

Calculates the net USD liquidity circulating in the financial system by subtracting treasury reserves and central bank operations:

Federal Reserve Net Liquidity Equation:

where:
- is the total Federal Reserve assets (balance sheet volume).
- is the Treasury General Account balance at the Fed.
- is the Reverse Repo facility usage volume.

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