import React from 'react'; import { BookOpen } from 'lucide-react'; import 'katex/dist/katex.min.css'; import { BlockMath, InlineMath } from 'react-katex'; interface CryptoMathModalProps { isOpen: boolean; onClose: () => void; } export default function CryptoMathModal({ isOpen, onClose }: CryptoMathModalProps) { React.useEffect(() => { const handleKeyDown = (e: KeyboardEvent) => { if (e.key === 'Escape') { onClose(); } }; if (isOpen) { window.addEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); } return () => { window.removeEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); }; }, [isOpen, onClose]); if (!isOpen) return null; return (
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Crypto Bayesian Markov - Math & Logic Specification

Institutional Specification Manual

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4. Crypto Bayesian Markov Engine

Models momentum regimes and updates transition probabilities using on-chain alpha inputs.

A. Markov Chain State Space

The asset return state space is mapped into 3 momentum regimes:

State 1 (S1) Bearish Squeeze / Crackdown
State 2 (S2) Consolidation / Mean Reversion
State 3 (S3) Parabolic Bull Run

B. Transition Matrix (P)

Calculates transition probabilities over rolling 90-day return vectors:

where represents the frequency probability of moving from State i to State j.

C. Bayesian Update Engine

When external alpha inputs (e.g. Funding Rate anomalies, Whale inflows) occur, state probabilities are updated using Bayes' theorem:

Where:
- is the prior state probability from the Markov transition matrix.
- is the conditional likelihood of observing this whale spike / funding squeeze in State i.

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