import React from 'react'; import { BookOpen, X, Landmark, Percent, Activity, Coins, Home, ShieldAlert } from 'lucide-react'; import 'katex/dist/katex.min.css'; import { BlockMath, InlineMath } from 'react-katex'; interface MacroMathModalProps { isOpen: boolean; onClose: () => void; } export default function MacroMathModal({ isOpen, onClose }: MacroMathModalProps) { React.useEffect(() => { const handleKeyDown = (e: KeyboardEvent) => { if (e.key === 'Escape') { onClose(); } }; if (isOpen) { window.addEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); } return () => { window.removeEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); }; }, [isOpen, onClose]); if (!isOpen) return null; return (
Institutional Strategy & Asset Allocation Manual
This handbook serves as the mathematical and logical blueprint for the Macroeconomic & Credit Data Silo. It provides quantitative definitions and asset allocation rationale for the 21 indicators compiled in our hybrid engine. By tracking central bank balance sheets, sovereign yields, corporate credit spreads, consumer delinquency vectors, and housing credit velocity, the system constructs a multi-layered diagnostic scanner to forecast macroeconomic regime transitions and evaluate systemic market risk.
The Buffett Indicator measures the aggregate valuation of the corporate sector relative to the total economic output of the nation. It represents a top-down capacity gauge, evaluating whether financial markets have expanded beyond their structural macroeconomic foundation:
Buffett Ratio Equation:
Where:
-
-
Strategic Rationale: A Buffett Ratio exceeding 150% indicates extreme historical overvaluation, signaling that corporate equity valuations are unsustainable compared to the real economic cash flows generated by the underlying economy. Under such conditions, long-term expected equity returns tend to compress towards zero or negative territory, prompting the system to lower equity beta weightings.
While the headline balance sheet represents raw central bank asset size, financial markets react Endogenously to the net volume of reserves circulating within the commercial banking system. We model this using the Net Fed Liquidity Proxy:
Net Liquidity Equation:
Where:
-
-
-
Liquidity Dynamics:
An increase in
The sovereign yield curve reflects market expectations of economic growth, monetary policy, and risk premiums. The primary spread used to measure structural inversion is the 2S10S spread:
2S10S Spread Equation:
Where:
-
-
Inversion & Un-Inversion: A negative spread (
Popularized by macroeconomic analysts such as Michael Burry, the retail consumer distress engine evaluates the health of consumer balance sheets by measuring the rate of credit defaults relative to the liquid cushion of household savings:
Consumer Credit Distress Index (CDI):
Where:
-
-
Macroeconomic Implications: Personal savings act as the primary shock absorber for the consumer. When the Savings Rate collapses (depleting liquid assets) while Credit Card Delinquencies simultaneously spike, it indicates that households are using high-interest credit card debt to sustain normal consumption. This divergence leads to structural consumer exhaustion and credit defaults, forming a leading indicator of an economic downturn.
The real estate sector represents the most interest-rate-sensitive component of the economy. Credit cycles within this layer are monitored via three interconnected indicators: