import React from 'react'; import { Settings, X } from 'lucide-react'; import 'katex/dist/katex.min.css'; import { BlockMath, InlineMath } from 'react-katex'; interface EconometricsBlueprintModalProps { isOpen: boolean; onClose: () => void; } export default function EconometricsBlueprintModal({ isOpen, onClose }: EconometricsBlueprintModalProps) { React.useEffect(() => { const handleKeyDown = (e: KeyboardEvent) => { if (e.key === 'Escape') { onClose(); } }; if (isOpen) { window.addEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); } return () => { window.removeEventListener('keydown', handleKeyDown); }; }, [isOpen, onClose]); if (!isOpen) return null; return (
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Econometric Events - Operational Blueprint

System User Manual & Interface Mechanics

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Event Studies & Models

Operational details of the econometric event study solver, timeline configuration, and abnormal returns calculations.

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1. Event Window Configuration

Allows defining the timeline partitions for analysis. The **120-day Estimation Window** serves to isolate market beta () and baseline alpha () from standard market returns using OLS estimation:

The **10-day Gap Window** acts as a strict mathematical **Isolation Shield** to prevent information leakage, pre-event front-running, or insider-related abnormal volatility from contaminating the baseline parameters.

2. Abnormal Returns (AR)

Computes daily differences between the actual stock return () and its expected normal return:

where and are the OLS parameters estimated over the estimation window, and represents the actual market benchmark index return on day . This isolates the asset's idiosyncratic reaction to event-specific shocks.

3. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR)

Integrates and sums the daily abnormal returns across the specified event window to track the cumulative market shocks:

where and define the bounds of the event window. This determines whether an event (e.g. earnings release, regulatory fine, supply-chain shock) created statistically significant excess wealth changes.

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Interface Actions & Chart Displays

Event Parameters Input Mask: Edit estimation days, gap days, event horizons, and click **"Run Event Study Solver"**. Initiates server-side calculations.

CAR Event Charts: Renders a Recharts line chart illustrating the trajectory of Cumulative Abnormal Returns () across the event window. A significant deviation from zero indicates market inefficiency or corporate information shocks.

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