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Closes #014 - System-wide handbook sweep, English consolidation & Crypto state persistence

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Antigravity Agent
2026-06-13 13:59:29 +02:00
parent f3c549e476
commit dc703e1bb8
18 changed files with 839 additions and 488 deletions
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138
components/modules/insider/InsiderDemo.tsx
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@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
if (whaleRes.liveDataAvailable === false) unavailable.push('Whales (13F Filings)');
if (unavailable.length > 0) {
setErrorMsg(`Echtzeitdaten-Quelle vorübergehend ausgelastet für: ${unavailable.join(', ')}. Bitte später erneut versuchen.`);
setErrorMsg(`Real-time data source temporarily busy for: ${unavailable.join(', ')}. Please try again later.`);
}
useSandboxStore.setState({
@@ -125,7 +125,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
} catch (err: any) {
console.error('Failed to load live insider data:', err.message);
if (active) {
setErrorMsg(err.message || 'Echtzeitdaten-Quelle vorübergehend nicht erreichbar.');
setErrorMsg(err.message || 'Real-time data source temporarily unreachable.');
}
} finally {
if (active) setLoading(false);
@@ -237,7 +237,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
if (!tickerStats || !selectedTicker) return [];
return tickerStats.volumes.map((vol, idx) => ({
month: `M-${tickerStats.volumes.length - idx - 1}`,
'Volumen (Shares)': vol,
'Volume (Shares)': vol,
}));
}, [tickerStats, selectedTicker]);
@@ -254,12 +254,12 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
{isShieldActive ? (
<span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 px-3 py-1 rounded-full text-[10px] font-bold bg-amber-500/10 text-amber-400 border border-amber-500/20 shadow-[0_0_10px_rgba(245,158,11,0.15)] animate-pulse">
<span className="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full bg-amber-500" />
DEV-ARCHIV AKTIV (0 CALLS)
DEV ARCHIVE ACTIVE (0 CALLS)
</span>
) : (
<span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 px-3 py-1 rounded-full text-[10px] font-bold bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-400 border border-emerald-500/20 shadow-[0_0_10px_rgba(16,185,129,0.15)]">
<span className="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full bg-emerald-500 animate-ping" />
LIVE-API ENDPUNKT (FMP CORPO)
LIVE API ENDPOINT (FMP CORPO)
</span>
)}
</h2>
@@ -270,13 +270,13 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
className="flex items-center gap-1.5 px-4 py-2 rounded-xl bg-slate-950/80 hover:bg-slate-900 border border-slate-800 hover:border-slate-700 transition-all font-semibold text-xs tracking-wider text-purple-400 justify-center h-11"
>
<BookOpen className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />
<span>📖 Modulerklärung</span>
<span>📖 Quantitative Handbook</span>
</button>
<div className="bg-slate-900 border border-slate-800 rounded-xl px-4 py-2 flex items-center gap-3 h-11">
<Shield className="text-purple-400 w-5 h-5" />
<div>
<p className="text-slate-400 text-xs">Bayesianische Kopplung</p>
<p className="text-slate-400 text-xs">Bayesian Coupling</p>
<p className="font-mono text-sm font-bold text-purple-400">
Prior Rebound: {(priorProbability * 100).toFixed(0)}%
</p>
@@ -290,7 +290,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<div className="p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-800 bg-slate-950/30 flex flex-col justify-between gap-4">
<div className="space-y-1">
<h4 className="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-300">Global Flow Outlier Scan</h4>
<p className="text-xs text-slate-400">Filtert den Markt nach statistisch signifikanten Kaufvolumina (Z-Score &gt; 2.0) und konzertierten Käufen (Insider-Cluster).</p>
<p className="text-xs text-slate-400">Filters the market for statistically significant purchase volumes (Z-Score &gt; 2.0) and concerted buying (insider clusters).</p>
</div>
<button
onClick={handleGlobalFlowScan}
@@ -298,20 +298,20 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
className="w-full bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-500 to-indigo-500 hover:from-purple-600 hover:to-indigo-600 disabled:from-purple-900 text-white font-bold py-2.5 px-4 rounded-xl transition-all shadow-lg shadow-purple-500/10 flex items-center justify-center gap-2"
>
<Radio className={`w-4 h-4 ${scanning ? 'animate-pulse' : ''}`} />
<span>{scanning ? 'Scanne Transaktionen...' : 'Global Flow Scan starten'}</span>
<span>{scanning ? 'Scanning Transactions...' : 'Start Global Flow Scan'}</span>
</button>
</div>
<div className="p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-800 bg-slate-950/30 flex flex-col justify-between gap-4">
<div className="space-y-1">
<h4 className="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-300">Ticker Lookup (Einzelauswertung)</h4>
<p className="text-xs text-slate-400">Gezielte Abfrage von Insider-Z-Scores und Bayesianischen Kopplungs-Updates (z.B. PLTR, RACE, AMZN, AAPL).</p>
<h4 className="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-300">Ticker Lookup (Single Evaluation)</h4>
<p className="text-xs text-slate-400">Targeted query of insider Z-scores and Bayesian coupling updates (e.g., PLTR, RACE, AMZN, AAPL).</p>
</div>
<form onSubmit={handleTickerLookup} className="flex gap-2">
<input
type="text"
required
placeholder="z.B. PLTR"
placeholder="e.g. PLTR"
className="bg-slate-950 border border-slate-800 rounded-lg p-2.5 flex-1 text-slate-100 font-mono text-sm uppercase focus:outline-none focus:border-purple-500"
value={searchQuery}
onChange={(e) => setSearchQuery(e.target.value)}
@@ -331,31 +331,31 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<div className="p-5 rounded-2xl border border-purple-500/30 bg-purple-500/5 grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-6 animate-fade-in">
<div className="space-y-3">
<div className="flex justify-between items-center border-b border-slate-800 pb-2">
<h3 className="font-mono font-bold text-lg text-slate-100">{selectedTicker} Einzelauswertung</h3>
<h3 className="font-mono font-bold text-lg text-slate-100">{selectedTicker} Single Evaluation</h3>
{tickerStats.isAnomaly && <span className="px-2 py-0.5 rounded bg-purple-500/20 text-purple-300 text-[10px] font-bold border border-purple-500/30 animate-pulse">FLOW OUTLIER</span>}
</div>
<div className="space-y-2 text-xs">
<div className="flex justify-between font-mono">
<span className="text-slate-400">Volumetrischer Z-Score:</span>
<span className="text-slate-400">Volumetric Z-Score:</span>
<span className={`font-bold ${tickerStats.isAnomaly ? 'text-purple-400' : 'text-slate-300'}`}>
Z = {tickerStats.zScore.toFixed(2)}
</span>
</div>
<div className="flex justify-between font-mono">
<span className="text-slate-400">Konzertiertes Cluster (14 Tage):</span>
<span className="text-slate-400">Concerted Cluster (14 Days):</span>
<span className={`font-bold ${tickerStats.isCluster ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-slate-400'}`}>
{tickerStats.isCluster ? `JA (${tickerStats.clusterCount} Insiders)` : `NEIN (${tickerStats.clusterCount})`}
{tickerStats.isCluster ? `YES (${tickerStats.clusterCount} Insiders)` : `NO (${tickerStats.clusterCount})`}
</span>
</div>
{tickerStats.isCluster && (
<div className="flex justify-between font-mono text-emerald-400">
<span>Cluster Exponent-Multiplikator:</span>
<span>Cluster Exponent Multiplier:</span>
<span>x{tickerStats.multiplier.toFixed(2)}</span>
</div>
)}
<div className="flex justify-between font-mono border-t border-slate-800/80 pt-2 text-sm">
<span className="text-slate-300">Gekoppelte Rebound-Wahrsch.:</span>
<span className="text-slate-300">Coupled Rebound Prob.:</span>
<span className="text-purple-400 font-bold flex items-center gap-1">
<Percent className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />
{(tickerStats.coupledRebound * 100).toFixed(0)}%
@@ -366,14 +366,14 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
{/* Volume chart */}
<div className="lg:col-span-2 h-44 w-full">
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-400 mb-1 text-center font-mono font-semibold">Insider Handelsvolumen (24 Monate Baseline)</div>
<div className="text-[10px] text-slate-400 mb-1 text-center font-mono font-semibold">Insider Trading Volume (24-Month Baseline)</div>
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="90%">
<BarChart data={volumeChartData}>
<CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" stroke="#1e293b" />
<XAxis dataKey="month" stroke="#64748b" fontSize={9} />
<YAxis stroke="#64748b" fontSize={9} />
<Tooltip contentStyle={{ backgroundColor: '#0f172a', borderColor: '#334155', borderRadius: '8px' }} />
<Bar dataKey="Volumen (Shares)" fill="#8b5cf6" radius={[3, 3, 0, 0]} />
<Bar dataKey="Volume (Shares)" fill="#8b5cf6" radius={[3, 3, 0, 0]} />
</BarChart>
</ResponsiveContainer>
</div>
@@ -383,12 +383,12 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
{/* Global Scan Outlier List */}
{scanResults && (
<div className="p-5 rounded-2xl border border-slate-800 bg-slate-950/20 mb-6 space-y-3 animate-fade-in">
<h3 className="text-sm font-bold text-slate-200 uppercase tracking-wider">Ergebnisse des Global Flow Scans</h3>
<h3 className="text-sm font-bold text-slate-200 uppercase tracking-wider">Global Flow Scan Results</h3>
{scanResults.length === 0 ? (
<div className="p-6 text-center border border-dashed border-slate-800 rounded-xl text-slate-400 bg-slate-900/10">
<Radio className="w-8 h-8 text-purple-500/50 mx-auto mb-2 animate-pulse" />
<p className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-300">Keine signifikanten Volumen-Anomalien gefunden</p>
<p className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mt-1">Es wurden keine Transaktionen mit einem berechneten volumetric Z-Score &gt; 2.0 in den aktiven Live-Feeds identifiziert.</p>
<p className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-300">No Significant Volume Anomalies Found</p>
<p className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mt-1">No transactions with a calculated volumetric Z-Score &gt; 2.0 were identified in the active live feeds.</p>
</div>
) : (
<div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
@@ -421,13 +421,13 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
onClick={() => setActiveSegment('executives')}
className={`flex-1 py-2 rounded-lg text-xs font-semibold font-sans transition-all flex items-center justify-center gap-1.5 ${activeSegment === 'executives' ? 'bg-purple-500 text-white font-bold' : 'text-slate-400 hover:text-slate-200'}`}
>
<User className="w-3.5 h-3.5" /> Vorstände (Form 4)
<User className="w-3.5 h-3.5" /> Executives (Form 4)
</button>
<button
onClick={() => setActiveSegment('congress')}
className={`flex-1 py-2 rounded-lg text-xs font-semibold font-sans transition-all flex items-center justify-center gap-1.5 ${activeSegment === 'congress' ? 'bg-purple-500 text-white font-bold' : 'text-slate-400 hover:text-slate-200'}`}
>
<Landmark className="w-3.5 h-3.5" /> Kongress (Stock Act)
<Landmark className="w-3.5 h-3.5" /> Congress (Stock Act)
</button>
<button
onClick={() => setActiveSegment('whales')}
@@ -441,7 +441,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<div className="p-4 rounded-xl border border-red-550/30 bg-red-550/10 text-red-400 text-xs flex items-center gap-3 mb-4 animate-fade-in">
<AlertTriangle className="w-5 h-5 shrink-0 animate-pulse" />
<div>
<span className="font-bold">Datenladefehler:</span> {errorMsg}
<span className="font-bold">Data Load Error:</span> {errorMsg}
</div>
</div>
)}
@@ -455,12 +455,12 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<th className="p-3">Ticker</th>
<th className="p-3">Insider Name</th>
<th className="p-3">Position</th>
<th className="p-3">Transaktion</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Stücke</th>
<th className="p-3 text-right">Wert ($)</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">Volumetrischer Z-Score</th>
<th className="p-3">Transaction</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Shares</th>
<th className="p-3 text-right">Value ($)</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">Volumetric Z-Score</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">P(R|Z)</th>
<th className="p-3">Strategische Einordnung</th>
<th className="p-3">Strategic Assessment</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
@@ -469,7 +469,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<td colSpan={9} className="p-8 text-center text-slate-400">
<div className="flex items-center justify-center gap-2">
<div className="w-4 h-4 border-2 border-purple-500 border-t-transparent rounded-full animate-spin" />
<span>Lade live Insider-Transaktionen (Form 4)...</span>
<span>Loading live insider transactions (Form 4)...</span>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
@@ -477,7 +477,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
{!loading && insiderTrades.length === 0 && (
<tr>
<td colSpan={9} className="p-8 text-center text-slate-500">
Keine Insider-Transaktionen geladen.
No insider transactions loaded.
</td>
</tr>
)}
@@ -496,7 +496,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<td className="p-3 text-slate-400">{t.relation}</td>
<td className="p-3">
<span className={`px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded text-[9px] font-bold ${isBuy ? 'bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-400 border border-emerald-500/20' : 'bg-rose-500/10 text-rose-400 border border-rose-500/20'}`}>
{isBuy ? 'KAUF' : 'VERKAUF'}
{isBuy ? 'BUY' : 'SELL'}
</span>
</td>
<td className="p-3 font-mono text-slate-300">{t.shares.toLocaleString()}</td>
@@ -505,7 +505,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
</td>
<td className={`p-3 font-mono text-center font-bold ${zScore >= 2.0 ? 'text-purple-400' : 'text-slate-350'}`}>{zScore}</td>
<td className="p-3 font-mono text-center text-purple-400 font-bold">{(coupledRebound * 100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
<td className="p-3 text-slate-350 whitespace-normal break-words">{t.insight || 'Opportunistische Diversifikation'}</td>
<td className="p-3 text-slate-350 whitespace-normal break-words">{t.insight || 'Opportunistic Diversification'}</td>
</tr>
);
})}
@@ -518,23 +518,23 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<div className="p-3 bg-amber-500/10 border-b border-slate-800 text-xs text-amber-400 flex items-start gap-2.5">
<AlertTriangle className="w-5 h-5 shrink-0" />
<div>
<span className="font-bold">U.S. Congress Stock Act Offenlegungslags:</span> Abgeordnete müssen Käufe innerhalb von 30 bis 45 Tagen offenlegen. Der Alpha-Lag in der Tabelle visualisiert diese Meldeverzögerung. Käufe können verzögert eingepreist sein.
<span className="font-bold">U.S. Congress Stock Act Disclosure Lags:</span> Representatives must disclose transactions within 30 to 45 days. The Alpha Lag in the table visualizes this reporting delay. Transactions may be priced in with a delay.
</div>
</div>
<table className="w-full border-collapse text-left text-xs">
<thead>
<tr className="border-b border-slate-800 text-slate-400 font-semibold bg-slate-900/40">
<th className="p-3">Ticker</th>
<th className="p-3">Abgeordneter</th>
<th className="p-3">Kammer</th>
<th className="p-3">Transaktion</th>
<th className="p-3">Volumen-Spanne</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Handelsdatum</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Meldedatum</th>
<th className="p-3 text-right">Alpha-Lag</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">Volumetrischer Z-Score</th>
<th className="p-3">Representative</th>
<th className="p-3">Chamber</th>
<th className="p-3">Transaction</th>
<th className="p-3">Volume Range</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Transaction Date</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Filing Date</th>
<th className="p-3 text-right">Alpha Lag</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">Volumetric Z-Score</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">P(R|Z)</th>
<th className="p-3">Strategische Einordnung</th>
<th className="p-3">Strategic Assessment</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
@@ -543,7 +543,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<td colSpan={11} className="p-8 text-center text-slate-400">
<div className="flex items-center justify-center gap-2">
<div className="w-4 h-4 border-2 border-purple-500 border-t-transparent rounded-full animate-spin" />
<span>Lade US-Kongress-Transaktionen...</span>
<span>Loading US Congress transactions...</span>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
@@ -551,7 +551,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
{!loading && congressTrades.length === 0 && (
<tr>
<td colSpan={11} className="p-8 text-center text-slate-500">
Keine Kongress-Transaktionen geladen.
No Congress transactions loaded.
</td>
</tr>
)}
@@ -571,16 +571,16 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<td className="p-3 text-slate-400">{c.chamber}</td>
<td className="p-3">
<span className={`px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded text-[9px] font-bold ${isBuy ? 'bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-400 border border-emerald-500/20' : 'bg-rose-500/10 text-rose-400 border border-rose-500/20'}`}>
{isBuy ? 'KAUF' : 'VERKAUF'}
{isBuy ? 'BUY' : 'SELL'}
</span>
</td>
<td className="p-3 text-slate-300 font-mono">{c.valueRange}</td>
<td className="p-3 font-mono text-slate-400">{c.transactionDate}</td>
<td className="p-3 font-mono text-slate-400">{c.filingDate}</td>
<td className="p-3 font-mono text-right text-amber-400 font-bold">{c.lagDays} Tage</td>
<td className="p-3 font-mono text-right text-amber-400 font-bold">{c.lagDays} Days</td>
<td className={`p-3 font-mono text-center font-bold ${zScore >= 2.0 ? 'text-purple-400' : 'text-slate-350'}`}>{zScore}</td>
<td className="p-3 font-mono text-center text-purple-400 font-bold">{(coupledRebound * 100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
<td className="p-3 text-slate-350 whitespace-normal break-words">{c.insight || 'Opportunistische Diversifikation'}</td>
<td className="p-3 text-slate-350 whitespace-normal break-words">{c.insight || 'Opportunistic Diversification'}</td>
</tr>
);
})}
@@ -595,14 +595,14 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<tr className="border-b border-slate-800 text-slate-400 font-semibold bg-slate-900/40">
<th className="p-3">Ticker</th>
<th className="p-3">Institution (13F Filers)</th>
<th className="p-3">Art</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Gehandelte Anteile</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Aktueller Bestand</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Meldedatum</th>
<th className="p-3 text-right">Geschätzter Wert ($)</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">Volumetrischer Z-Score</th>
<th className="p-3">Type</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Shares Traded</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Shares Held</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono">Filing Date</th>
<th className="p-3 text-right">Estimated Value ($)</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">Volumetric Z-Score</th>
<th className="p-3 font-mono text-center">P(R|Z)</th>
<th className="p-3">Strategische Einordnung</th>
<th className="p-3">Strategic Assessment</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
@@ -611,7 +611,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
<td colSpan={10} className="p-8 text-center text-slate-400">
<div className="flex items-center justify-center gap-2">
<div className="w-4 h-4 border-2 border-purple-500 border-t-transparent rounded-full animate-spin" />
<span>Lade 13F Whales-Transaktionen...</span>
<span>Loading 13F whale transactions...</span>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
@@ -619,7 +619,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
{!loading && whaleTrades.length === 0 && (
<tr>
<td colSpan={10} className="p-8 text-center text-slate-500">
Keine Institutionen-Transaktionen geladen.
No institutional transactions loaded.
</td>
</tr>
)}
@@ -648,7 +648,7 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
</td>
<td className={`p-3 font-mono text-center font-bold ${zScore >= 2.0 ? 'text-purple-400' : 'text-slate-350'}`}>{zScore}</td>
<td className="p-3 font-mono text-center text-purple-400 font-bold">{(coupledRebound * 100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
<td className="p-3 text-slate-350 whitespace-normal break-words">{w.insight || 'Opportunistisches Rebalancing'}</td>
<td className="p-3 text-slate-350 whitespace-normal break-words">{w.insight || 'Opportunistic Rebalancing'}</td>
</tr>
);
})}
@@ -665,34 +665,34 @@ export default function InsiderDemo() {
className="flex items-center gap-1.5 text-xs text-slate-400 hover:text-purple-400 transition-colors focus:outline-none"
>
<span>{showMathAccordion ? <ChevronUp className="w-4 h-4" /> : <ChevronDown className="w-4 h-4" />}</span>
<span className="font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">Mathematische Formulierung (Z-Score &amp; Bayesianische Kopplung)</span>
<span className="font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">Mathematical Formulation (Z-Score &amp; Bayesian Coupling)</span>
</button>
{showMathAccordion && (
<div className="mt-4 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-850 bg-slate-950/40 text-xs text-slate-300 space-y-4">
<div>
<h4 className="font-bold text-purple-400 mb-1">1. Volumetrischer Z-Score (Statistische Signifikanz)</h4>
<h4 className="font-bold text-purple-400 mb-1">1. Volumetric Z-Score (Statistical Significance)</h4>
<p className="mb-2">
Der Z-Score gibt an, um wie viele Standardabweichungen das aktuelle Transaktionsvolumen <InlineMath math="X_t" /> vom historischen Durchschnitt <InlineMath math="\mu" /> abweicht:
The Z-Score indicates how many standard deviations the current transaction volume <InlineMath math="X_t" /> deviates from the historical average <InlineMath math="\\mu" />:
</p>
<div className="py-2 overflow-x-auto text-slate-200">
<BlockMath math="Z = \frac{X_t - \mu}{\sigma}" />
<BlockMath math="Z = \\frac{X_t - \\mu}{\\sigma}" />
</div>
<p className="text-slate-400">
Ein Z-Score &gt; 2.0 wird als Ausreißer (Anomaly Trigger) eingestuft, was einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von unter 2.27% für einen zufälligen Anstieg entspricht (einseitiger Test bei Normalverteilung).
A Z-Score &gt; 2.0 is classified as an outlier (anomaly trigger), corresponding to a probability of less than 2.27% for a random spike (one-sided test under a normal distribution).
</p>
</div>
<div className="border-t border-slate-900 pt-3">
<h4 className="font-bold text-purple-400 mb-1">2. Bayesianische Kopplung (Rebound-Wahrscheinlichkeit)</h4>
<h4 className="font-bold text-purple-400 mb-1">2. Bayesian Coupling (Rebound Probability)</h4>
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Wir verknüpfen den Preisdrop-Sentiment (Element 2) mit den Insider-Z-Scores (Element 3), um die A-Posteriori-Wahrscheinlichkeit eines echten Rebounds zu ermitteln:
We couple price drop sentiment (Element 2) with insider Z-Scores (Element 3) to determine the posterior probability of a true rebound:
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<BlockMath math="P(R|Z) = \frac{P(Z|R) \cdot P(R)}{P(Z|R) \cdot P(R) + P(Z|\neg R) \cdot (1 - P(R))}" />
<BlockMath math="P(R|Z) = \\frac{P(Z|R) \\cdot P(R)}{P(Z|R) \\cdot P(R) + P(Z|\\neg R) \\cdot (1 - P(R))}" />
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wobei <InlineMath math="P(R)" /> die Prior-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist. Ist der Z-Score hoch (Käufe), steigt die Likelihood <InlineMath math="P(Z|R)" /> stark an und maximiert den Rebound-Erwartungswert.
where <InlineMath math="P(R)" /> is the prior probability. When the Z-Score is high (buying), the likelihood <InlineMath math="P(Z|R)" /> increases significantly, maximizing the rebound expectation.
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