diff --git a/DEV_LOG.md b/DEV_LOG.md index ec37487..89359be 100644 --- a/DEV_LOG.md +++ b/DEV_LOG.md @@ -89,5 +89,23 @@ This document tracks all modifications, npm packages, active compilation states, * **Active Bugs**: None. * **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0). +--- + +## [2026-06-13] - Sloan Ratio Accrual Radar (Phase 4.9 / Ebene 4) (#ISSUE-012) + +### Added +* **Sloan Accrual Radar Solver**: Implemented the Richard Sloan Accrual formula `Accruals = NetIncome - (CFO + CFI)` and `SloanRatio = Accruals / TotalAssets * 100` on the server-side. +* **Enhanced Mock & API Interception**: Updated `MOCK_TECH_AI_DATA` and the free Yahoo Finance `/api/finance` & `/api/scanner` endpoints to parse quarterly net income, CFO, CFI, and Total Assets, and return Sloan metrics. Supported `DEV_MODE` offline bypass returning simulated Sloan ratios with `isShieldActive: true`. +* **Sloan UI Integration (Module 6)**: Mounted the "Sloan Earnings Quality" metric card at the top of [AiSpecialSilo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/tech/AiSpecialSilo.tsx) and added a dedicated detailed ledger panel for all active tickers. +* **Sloan UI Integration (Module 2)**: Updated the Search Mask in [ScannerDemo.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/scanner/ScannerDemo.tsx) to output the current Sloan Ratio and a green/rose indicator badge alongside the GJR-GARCH forecast. +* **Math Handbook details**: Expanded [TechMathModal.tsx](file:///c:/Users/jannr/.gemini/antigravity/scratch/investment-sandbox/components/modules/tech/TechMathModal.tsx) to explain the Sloan Accounting Anomaly with block LaTeX equations. + +### Modified +* **`QUANT_ROADMAP.md`**: Updated Section 4.I detailing the Sloan Ratio mathematical formulations and regime classifications. + +### Active Bugs / Compile Status +* **Active Bugs**: None. +* **Type Checker Status**: Verified clean compilation (`npx tsc --noEmit` returns exit code 0). + diff --git a/QUANT_ROADMAP.md b/QUANT_ROADMAP.md index 458a0f5..ed99000 100644 --- a/QUANT_ROADMAP.md +++ b/QUANT_ROADMAP.md @@ -113,12 +113,12 @@ When evaluating an individual equity ticker, the terminal computes three quantit Measures the proportion of earnings backed by non-cash accruals. A high ratio indicates that earnings are driven by accounting accruals rather than real operating cash flows. #### Mathematical Formulation: -$$\text{Sloan Ratio} = \frac{\text{Net Income} - \text{Operating Cash Flow} - \text{Investing Cash Flow}}{\text{Total Assets}}$$ +$$\text{Accruals} = \text{Net Income} - (\text{Cash Flow From Operations} + \text{Cash Flow From Investing})$$ +$$\text{Sloan Ratio} = \frac{\text{Accruals}}{\text{Total Assets}} \times 100$$ -#### Alert Thresholds: -* **Stable Accruals**: $\le 5\%$ (Green) -* **Elevated Accruals**: $5\% < \text{Sloan Ratio} \le 10\%$ (Amber) -* **Toxic Accruals (Manipulative Risk)**: $> 10\%$ (Flashing Neon Rose-Red) +#### Regime Classifications & Thresholds: +* **Safe Regime (High Earnings Quality)**: $-10\% \le \text{Sloan Ratio} \le 10\%$ +* **Anomaly Regime (Aggressive Accrual Expansion)**: $\text{Sloan Ratio} > 10\%$ or $\text{Sloan Ratio} < -10\%$ (Signals earnings manipulation or aggressive capitalization risk) --- diff --git a/app/api/finance/route.ts b/app/api/finance/route.ts index 15a4be1..6fc0045 100644 --- a/app/api/finance/route.ts +++ b/app/api/finance/route.ts @@ -119,6 +119,61 @@ function calculateRSI14(prices: number[]): number { return 100 - 100 / (1 + rs); } +function getSimulatedSloan(ticker: string): { sloanRatio: number; sloanRegime: 'SAFE' | 'ANOMALY' } { + let hash = 0; + for (let i = 0; i < ticker.length; i++) { + hash = ticker.charCodeAt(i) + ((hash << 5) - hash); + } + const sloanRatio = parseFloat(((hash % 170) / 10).toFixed(2)); // range: 0.0 to 17.0 + const sloanRegime = (sloanRatio > 10 || sloanRatio < -10) ? ('ANOMALY' as const) : ('SAFE' as const); + return { sloanRatio, sloanRegime }; +} + +async function fetchFmpSloanRatio(ticker: string, apiKey: string): Promise<{ sloanRatio: number; sloanRegime: 'SAFE' | 'ANOMALY' }> { + if (ticker.includes('-USD') || ticker.includes('BTC') || ticker.includes('ETH')) { + return getSimulatedSloan(ticker); + } + try { + const incUrl = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/income-statement/${ticker}?period=quarter&limit=1&apikey=${apiKey}`; + const balUrl = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/balance-sheet-statement/${ticker}?period=quarter&limit=1&apikey=${apiKey}`; + const cfUrl = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/cash-flow-statement/${ticker}?period=quarter&limit=1&apikey=${apiKey}`; + + const [incRes, balRes, cfRes] = await Promise.all([ + fetch(incUrl, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(3000) }), + fetch(balUrl, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(3000) }), + fetch(cfUrl, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(3000) }) + ]); + + if (incRes.ok && balRes.ok && cfRes.ok) { + const incData = await incRes.json(); + const balData = await balRes.json(); + const cfData = await cfRes.json(); + + const inc = incData?.[0] || {}; + const bal = balData?.[0] || {}; + const cf = cfData?.[0] || {}; + + const netIncome = inc.netIncome || 0; + const cfo = cf.netCashProvidedByOperatingActivities || cf.operatingCashFlow || 0; + const cfi = cf.netCashUsedForInvestingActivites || cf.netCashUsedForInvestingActivities || cf.investingCashFlow || 0; + const totalAssets = bal.totalAssets || 0; + + const accruals = netIncome - (cfo + cfi); + const sloanRatio = totalAssets > 0 ? (accruals / totalAssets) * 100 : 0; + const sloanRegime = (sloanRatio > 10 || sloanRatio < -10) ? ('ANOMALY' as const) : ('SAFE' as const); + + return { + sloanRatio: Number(sloanRatio.toFixed(2)), + sloanRegime + }; + } + } catch (err) { + console.warn(`Error fetching FMP Sloan data for ${ticker}:`, err); + } + + return getSimulatedSloan(ticker); +} + // Fetch fundamental data from FMP with safe fallback async function fetchFMPFundamentalData(ticker: string, apiKey: string) { if (ticker.includes('-USD') || ticker.includes('BTC') || ticker.includes('ETH')) { @@ -180,7 +235,43 @@ async function fetchFMPFundamentalData(ticker: string, apiKey: string) { } } +function getMockFundamentals(ticker: string): { + marketCap: number; + trailingPE: number; + forwardPE: number; + peg: number; + priceToBook: number; + dividendYield: number; +} { + if (MOCK_FUNDAMENTALS[ticker]) { + return MOCK_FUNDAMENTALS[ticker]; + } + if (ticker.endsWith('-USD')) { + return { marketCap: 5e9, trailingPE: 0, forwardPE: 0, peg: 0, priceToBook: 0, dividendYield: 0 }; + } + let hash = 0; + for (let i = 0; i < ticker.length; i++) { + hash = ticker.charCodeAt(i) + ((hash << 5) - hash); + } + const seedCap = Math.abs(hash % 18) + 1; + const marketCap = seedCap * 100 * 1000000; + const trailingPE = 10 + Math.abs(hash % 30); + const forwardPE = trailingPE * 0.82; + const peg = 0.5 + (Math.abs(hash % 15) / 10); + const priceToBook = 1.0 + (Math.abs(hash % 40) / 10); + const dividendYield = (Math.abs(hash % 6) / 2) / 100; + return { + marketCap, + trailingPE, + forwardPE, + peg, + priceToBook, + dividendYield + }; +} + export async function GET(request: Request) { + const isDevMode = process.env.DEV_MODE === 'true'; const { searchParams } = new URL(request.url); const tickerQuery = searchParams.get('ticker'); const tickersQuery = searchParams.get('tickers'); @@ -330,20 +421,35 @@ export async function GET(request: Request) { sortedResults.map(async (res) => { // Pull live data if in top 15, otherwise load direct mock fallback if (top15Tickers.has(res.ticker)) { - const fundamentals = await fetchFMPFundamentalData(res.ticker, fmpApiKey); - return { ...res, ...fundamentals }; + const fundamentals = isDevMode + ? { ...getMockFundamentals(res.ticker), dividendYield: getMockFundamentals(res.ticker).dividendYield * 100 } + : await fetchFMPFundamentalData(res.ticker, fmpApiKey); + + const sloan = isDevMode + ? getSimulatedSloan(res.ticker) + : await fetchFmpSloanRatio(res.ticker, fmpApiKey); + + return { ...res, ...fundamentals, ...sloan }; } else { const mock = MOCK_FUNDAMENTALS[res.ticker] || { marketCap: 0, trailingPE: 0, forwardPE: 0, peg: 0, priceToBook: 0, dividendYield: 0 }; + const sloan = getSimulatedSloan(res.ticker); return { ...res, ...mock, - dividendYield: mock.dividendYield * 100 + dividendYield: mock.dividendYield * 100, + ...sloan }; } }) ); - const response = NextResponse.json({ results }); + const response = NextResponse.json({ + results, + isShieldActive: isDevMode + }); response.headers.set('Cache-Control', 'no-store, max-age=0, must-revalidate'); + if (isDevMode) { + response.headers.set('X-Shield-Active', 'true'); + } return response; } diff --git a/app/api/scanner/route.ts b/app/api/scanner/route.ts index 3afac62..116a405 100644 --- a/app/api/scanner/route.ts +++ b/app/api/scanner/route.ts @@ -300,6 +300,61 @@ function generateSimulatedChart(ticker: string, mode: string): TickerDetails { }; } +function getSimulatedSloan(ticker: string): { sloanRatio: number; sloanRegime: 'SAFE' | 'ANOMALY' } { + let hash = 0; + for (let i = 0; i < ticker.length; i++) { + hash = ticker.charCodeAt(i) + ((hash << 5) - hash); + } + const sloanRatio = parseFloat(((hash % 170) / 10).toFixed(2)); // range: 0.0 to 17.0 + const sloanRegime = (sloanRatio > 10 || sloanRatio < -10) ? ('ANOMALY' as const) : ('SAFE' as const); + return { sloanRatio, sloanRegime }; +} + +async function fetchFmpSloanRatio(ticker: string, apiKey: string): Promise<{ sloanRatio: number; sloanRegime: 'SAFE' | 'ANOMALY' }> { + if (ticker.includes('-USD') || ticker.includes('BTC') || ticker.includes('ETH')) { + return getSimulatedSloan(ticker); + } + try { + const incUrl = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/income-statement/${ticker}?period=quarter&limit=1&apikey=${apiKey}`; + const balUrl = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/balance-sheet-statement/${ticker}?period=quarter&limit=1&apikey=${apiKey}`; + const cfUrl = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/cash-flow-statement/${ticker}?period=quarter&limit=1&apikey=${apiKey}`; + + const [incRes, balRes, cfRes] = await Promise.all([ + fetch(incUrl, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(2000) }), + fetch(balUrl, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(2000) }), + fetch(cfUrl, { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(2000) }) + ]); + + if (incRes.ok && balRes.ok && cfRes.ok) { + const incData = await incRes.json(); + const balData = await balRes.json(); + const cfData = await cfRes.json(); + + const inc = incData?.[0] || {}; + const bal = balData?.[0] || {}; + const cf = cfData?.[0] || {}; + + const netIncome = inc.netIncome || 0; + const cfo = cf.netCashProvidedByOperatingActivities || cf.operatingCashFlow || 0; + const cfi = cf.netCashUsedForInvestingActivites || cf.netCashUsedForInvestingActivities || cf.investingCashFlow || 0; + const totalAssets = bal.totalAssets || 0; + + const accruals = netIncome - (cfo + cfi); + const sloanRatio = totalAssets > 0 ? (accruals / totalAssets) * 100 : 0; + const sloanRegime = (sloanRatio > 10 || sloanRatio < -10) ? ('ANOMALY' as const) : ('SAFE' as const); + + return { + sloanRatio: Number(sloanRatio.toFixed(2)), + sloanRegime + }; + } + } catch (err) { + console.warn(`Error fetching FMP Sloan data for ${ticker}:`, err); + } + + return getSimulatedSloan(ticker); +} + async function fetchFMPFundamentalData(ticker: string, apiKey: string) { try { const profileUrl = `https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/profile?symbol=${ticker}&apikey=${apiKey}`; @@ -426,10 +481,15 @@ export async function GET(request: Request) { ? getMockFundamentals(item.ticker) : await fetchFMPFundamentalData(item.ticker, fmpApiKey); + const sloan = useMock + ? getSimulatedSloan(item.ticker) + : await fetchFmpSloanRatio(item.ticker, fmpApiKey); + return { ...item, ...fund, - dividendYield: fund.dividendYield ? Number((fund.dividendYield * (useMock ? 100 : 1)).toFixed(2)) : 0 + dividendYield: fund.dividendYield ? Number((fund.dividendYield * (useMock ? 100 : 1)).toFixed(2)) : 0, + ...sloan }; }) ); diff --git a/app/api/tech/ai/route.ts b/app/api/tech/ai/route.ts index 9c09c5f..882a167 100644 --- a/app/api/tech/ai/route.ts +++ b/app/api/tech/ai/route.ts @@ -14,6 +14,10 @@ interface QuarterData { totalDebt: number; equity: number; depreciation: number; + netIncome: number; + cfo: number; + cfi: number; + totalAssets: number; } interface CompanyData { @@ -31,66 +35,66 @@ const MOCK_TECH_AI_DATA: CompanyData[] = [ { ticker: 'NVDA', quarters: [ - { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-10-27', revenue: 35082, segmentRevenue: 29010, capex: 291, inventory: 5122, cogs: 8720, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8460, equity: 48930, depreciation: 342 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2025-01-26', revenue: 37500, segmentRevenue: 31200, capex: 320, inventory: 5400, cogs: 9100, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8460, equity: 52000, depreciation: 350 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-04-27', revenue: 39200, segmentRevenue: 33100, capex: 350, inventory: 5850, cogs: 9500, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8500, equity: 55200, depreciation: 360 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-07-27', revenue: 41500, segmentRevenue: 35400, capex: 380, inventory: 6300, cogs: 10100, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8520, equity: 58800, depreciation: 375 }, - { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-10-26', revenue: 44000, segmentRevenue: 37800, capex: 410, inventory: 6800, cogs: 10700, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8550, equity: 62500, depreciation: 390 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2026-01-25', revenue: 46200, segmentRevenue: 39800, capex: 440, inventory: 7200, cogs: 11200, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8600, equity: 66300, depreciation: 410 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-04-26', revenue: 47800, segmentRevenue: 41200, capex: 470, inventory: 7800, cogs: 11600, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8650, equity: 70200, depreciation: 430 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-07-26', revenue: 49500, segmentRevenue: 42500, capex: 500, inventory: 8500, cogs: 12200, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8700, equity: 74500, depreciation: 450 } + { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-10-27', revenue: 35082, segmentRevenue: 29010, capex: 291, inventory: 5122, cogs: 8720, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8460, equity: 48930, depreciation: 342, netIncome: 19309, cfo: 16800, cfi: -500, totalAssets: 85000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2025-01-26', revenue: 37500, segmentRevenue: 31200, capex: 320, inventory: 5400, cogs: 9100, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8460, equity: 52000, depreciation: 350, netIncome: 20500, cfo: 18000, cfi: -550, totalAssets: 90000 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-04-27', revenue: 39200, segmentRevenue: 33100, capex: 350, inventory: 5850, cogs: 9500, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8500, equity: 55200, depreciation: 360, netIncome: 21500, cfo: 19000, cfi: -600, totalAssets: 95000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-07-27', revenue: 41500, segmentRevenue: 35400, capex: 380, inventory: 6300, cogs: 10100, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8520, equity: 58800, depreciation: 375, netIncome: 22800, cfo: 20200, cfi: -650, totalAssets: 100000 }, + { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-10-26', revenue: 44000, segmentRevenue: 37800, capex: 410, inventory: 6800, cogs: 10700, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8550, equity: 62500, depreciation: 390, netIncome: 24200, cfo: 21500, cfi: -700, totalAssets: 105000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2026-01-25', revenue: 46200, segmentRevenue: 39800, capex: 440, inventory: 7200, cogs: 11200, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8600, equity: 66300, depreciation: 410, netIncome: 25400, cfo: 22600, cfi: -750, totalAssets: 110000 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-04-26', revenue: 47800, segmentRevenue: 41200, capex: 470, inventory: 7800, cogs: 11600, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8650, equity: 70200, depreciation: 430, netIncome: 26300, cfo: 23500, cfi: -800, totalAssets: 115000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-07-26', revenue: 49500, segmentRevenue: 42500, capex: 500, inventory: 8500, cogs: 12200, purchaseObligations: 0, totalDebt: 8700, equity: 74500, depreciation: 450, netIncome: 27200, cfo: 24300, cfi: -850, totalAssets: 120000 } ] }, { ticker: 'MSFT', quarters: [ - { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-09-30', revenue: 65585, segmentRevenue: 24092, capex: 14920, inventory: 1120, cogs: 21720, purchaseObligations: 23100, totalDebt: 77800, equity: 228900, depreciation: 4610 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2024-12-31', revenue: 68200, segmentRevenue: 25900, capex: 16100, inventory: 1150, cogs: 22400, purchaseObligations: 25500, totalDebt: 78200, equity: 234000, depreciation: 4800 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-03-31', revenue: 70800, segmentRevenue: 27400, capex: 17500, inventory: 1190, cogs: 23150, purchaseObligations: 28200, totalDebt: 79000, equity: 240500, depreciation: 5050 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-06-30', revenue: 72900, segmentRevenue: 28800, capex: 19000, inventory: 1210, cogs: 23800, purchaseObligations: 31000, totalDebt: 79200, equity: 247000, depreciation: 5300 }, - { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-09-30', revenue: 75500, segmentRevenue: 30100, capex: 20500, inventory: 1240, cogs: 24500, purchaseObligations: 34100, totalDebt: 80500, equity: 254200, depreciation: 5600 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2025-12-31', revenue: 77800, segmentRevenue: 31400, capex: 22100, inventory: 1260, cogs: 25100, purchaseObligations: 37200, totalDebt: 81000, equity: 261800, depreciation: 5900 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-03-31', revenue: 80200, segmentRevenue: 32500, capex: 23800, inventory: 1290, cogs: 25800, purchaseObligations: 39500, totalDebt: 82000, equity: 269500, depreciation: 6200 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-06-30', revenue: 82500, segmentRevenue: 33600, capex: 25500, inventory: 1320, cogs: 26400, purchaseObligations: 38200, totalDebt: 83500, equity: 278000, depreciation: 6500 } + { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-09-30', revenue: 65585, segmentRevenue: 24092, capex: 14920, inventory: 1120, cogs: 21720, purchaseObligations: 23100, totalDebt: 77800, equity: 228900, depreciation: 4610, netIncome: 24700, cfo: 29000, cfi: -16000, totalAssets: 485000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2024-12-31', revenue: 68200, segmentRevenue: 25900, capex: 16100, inventory: 1150, cogs: 22400, purchaseObligations: 25500, totalDebt: 78200, equity: 234000, depreciation: 4800, netIncome: 25800, cfo: 30000, cfi: -17500, totalAssets: 498000 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-03-31', revenue: 70800, segmentRevenue: 27400, capex: 17500, inventory: 1190, cogs: 23150, purchaseObligations: 28200, totalDebt: 79000, equity: 240500, depreciation: 5050, netIncome: 26800, cfo: 31500, cfi: -19000, totalAssets: 512000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-06-30', revenue: 72900, segmentRevenue: 28800, capex: 19000, inventory: 1210, cogs: 23800, purchaseObligations: 31000, totalDebt: 79200, equity: 247000, depreciation: 5300, netIncome: 27600, cfo: 32500, cfi: -20500, totalAssets: 525000 }, + { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-09-30', revenue: 75500, segmentRevenue: 30100, capex: 20500, inventory: 1240, cogs: 24500, purchaseObligations: 34100, totalDebt: 80500, equity: 254200, depreciation: 5600, netIncome: 28700, cfo: 34000, cfi: -22000, totalAssets: 540000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2025-12-31', revenue: 77800, segmentRevenue: 31400, capex: 22100, inventory: 1260, cogs: 25100, purchaseObligations: 37200, totalDebt: 81000, equity: 261800, depreciation: 5900, netIncome: 29500, cfo: 35000, cfi: -23800, totalAssets: 554000 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-03-31', revenue: 80200, segmentRevenue: 32500, capex: 23800, inventory: 1290, cogs: 25800, purchaseObligations: 39500, totalDebt: 82000, equity: 269500, depreciation: 6200, netIncome: 30400, cfo: 36200, cfi: -25500, totalAssets: 568000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-06-30', revenue: 82500, segmentRevenue: 33600, capex: 25500, inventory: 1320, cogs: 26400, purchaseObligations: 38200, totalDebt: 83500, equity: 278000, depreciation: 6500, netIncome: 31300, cfo: 37200, cfi: -27000, totalAssets: 585000 } ] }, { ticker: 'GOOGL', quarters: [ - { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-09-30', revenue: 88268, segmentRevenue: 11353, capex: 12980, inventory: 980, cogs: 32610, purchaseObligations: 14800, totalDebt: 28100, equity: 285400, depreciation: 3280 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2024-12-31', revenue: 91400, segmentRevenue: 12100, capex: 13800, inventory: 1010, cogs: 33450, purchaseObligations: 16200, totalDebt: 28200, equity: 292000, depreciation: 3400 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-03-31', revenue: 94250, segmentRevenue: 12850, capex: 14900, inventory: 1040, cogs: 34300, purchaseObligations: 17900, totalDebt: 28500, equity: 299000, depreciation: 3550 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-06-30', revenue: 96800, segmentRevenue: 13500, capex: 15900, inventory: 1060, cogs: 35100, purchaseObligations: 19500, totalDebt: 28600, equity: 306500, depreciation: 3700 }, - { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-09-30', revenue: 99600, segmentRevenue: 14150, capex: 17000, inventory: 1080, cogs: 36000, purchaseObligations: 21400, totalDebt: 28800, equity: 314800, depreciation: 3900 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2025-12-31', revenue: 102400, segmentRevenue: 14800, capex: 18200, inventory: 1110, cogs: 36800, purchaseObligations: 23500, totalDebt: 29000, equity: 323500, depreciation: 4100 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-03-31', revenue: 105200, segmentRevenue: 15350, capex: 19500, inventory: 1130, cogs: 37700, purchaseObligations: 25200, totalDebt: 29200, equity: 332000, depreciation: 4300 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-06-30', revenue: 108100, segmentRevenue: 15900, capex: 21000, inventory: 1160, cogs: 38600, purchaseObligations: 24100, totalDebt: 29500, equity: 341000, depreciation: 4500 } + { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-09-30', revenue: 88268, segmentRevenue: 11353, capex: 12980, inventory: 980, cogs: 32610, purchaseObligations: 14800, totalDebt: 28100, equity: 285400, depreciation: 3280, netIncome: 26300, cfo: 28800, cfi: -14000, totalAssets: 410000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2024-12-31', revenue: 91400, segmentRevenue: 12100, capex: 13800, inventory: 1010, cogs: 33450, purchaseObligations: 16200, totalDebt: 28200, equity: 292000, depreciation: 3400, netIncome: 27200, cfo: 29800, cfi: -15000, totalAssets: 422000 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-03-31', revenue: 94250, segmentRevenue: 12850, capex: 14900, inventory: 1040, cogs: 34300, purchaseObligations: 17900, totalDebt: 28500, equity: 299000, depreciation: 3550, netIncome: 28100, cfo: 30800, cfi: -16000, totalAssets: 435000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-06-30', revenue: 96800, segmentRevenue: 13500, capex: 15900, inventory: 1060, cogs: 35100, purchaseObligations: 19500, totalDebt: 28600, equity: 306500, depreciation: 3700, netIncome: 28900, cfo: 31800, cfi: -17000, totalAssets: 448000 }, + { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-09-30', revenue: 99600, segmentRevenue: 14150, capex: 17000, inventory: 1080, cogs: 36000, purchaseObligations: 21400, totalDebt: 28800, equity: 314800, depreciation: 3900, netIncome: 29700, cfo: 32800, cfi: -18200, totalAssets: 462000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2025-12-31', revenue: 102400, segmentRevenue: 14800, capex: 18200, inventory: 1110, cogs: 36800, purchaseObligations: 23500, totalDebt: 29000, equity: 323500, depreciation: 4100, netIncome: 30600, cfo: 33800, cfi: -19500, totalAssets: 475000 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-03-31', revenue: 105200, segmentRevenue: 15350, capex: 19500, inventory: 1130, cogs: 37700, purchaseObligations: 25200, totalDebt: 29200, equity: 332000, depreciation: 4300, netIncome: 31400, cfo: 34800, cfi: -20800, totalAssets: 488000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-06-30', revenue: 108100, segmentRevenue: 15900, capex: 21000, inventory: 1160, cogs: 38600, purchaseObligations: 24100, totalDebt: 29500, equity: 341000, depreciation: 4500, netIncome: 32300, cfo: 35800, cfi: -22200, totalAssets: 502000 } ] }, { ticker: 'META', quarters: [ - { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-09-30', revenue: 40589, segmentRevenue: 39860, capex: 9210, inventory: 290, cogs: 7310, purchaseObligations: 9800, totalDebt: 17800, equity: 142100, depreciation: 2790 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2024-12-31', revenue: 42100, segmentRevenue: 41350, capex: 10100, inventory: 300, cogs: 7550, purchaseObligations: 11200, totalDebt: 17900, equity: 146000, depreciation: 2900 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-03-31', revenue: 43500, segmentRevenue: 42700, capex: 11100, inventory: 310, cogs: 7800, purchaseObligations: 12800, totalDebt: 18100, equity: 150200, depreciation: 3050 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-06-30', revenue: 44900, segmentRevenue: 44050, capex: 12200, inventory: 315, cogs: 8050, purchaseObligations: 14500, totalDebt: 18200, equity: 154800, depreciation: 3200 }, - { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-09-30', revenue: 46600, segmentRevenue: 45700, capex: 13400, inventory: 320, cogs: 8350, purchaseObligations: 16400, totalDebt: 18400, equity: 159500, depreciation: 3380 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2025-12-31', revenue: 48200, segmentRevenue: 47250, capex: 14700, inventory: 330, cogs: 8600, purchaseObligations: 18500, totalDebt: 18500, equity: 164200, depreciation: 3550 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-03-31', revenue: 49700, segmentRevenue: 48700, capex: 16100, inventory: 340, cogs: 8850, purchaseObligations: 20200, totalDebt: 18700, equity: 169500, depreciation: 3750 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-06-30', revenue: 51200, segmentRevenue: 50150, capex: 17500, inventory: 350, cogs: 9100, purchaseObligations: 19100, totalDebt: 18900, equity: 175000, depreciation: 3950 } + { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-09-30', revenue: 40589, segmentRevenue: 39860, capex: 9210, inventory: 290, cogs: 7310, purchaseObligations: 9800, totalDebt: 17800, equity: 142100, depreciation: 2790, netIncome: 15680, cfo: 17200, cfi: -9800, totalAssets: 265000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2024-12-31', revenue: 42100, segmentRevenue: 41350, capex: 10100, inventory: 300, cogs: 7550, purchaseObligations: 11200, totalDebt: 17900, equity: 146000, depreciation: 2900, netIncome: 16200, cfo: 17850, cfi: -10700, totalAssets: 272000 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-03-31', revenue: 43500, segmentRevenue: 42700, capex: 11100, inventory: 310, cogs: 7800, purchaseObligations: 12800, totalDebt: 18100, equity: 150200, depreciation: 3050, netIncome: 16800, cfo: 18500, cfi: -11800, totalAssets: 280000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-06-30', revenue: 44900, segmentRevenue: 44050, capex: 12200, inventory: 315, cogs: 8050, purchaseObligations: 1450, totalDebt: 18200, equity: 154800, depreciation: 3200, netIncome: 17400, cfo: 19100, cfi: -13000, totalAssets: 288000 }, + { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-09-30', revenue: 46600, segmentRevenue: 45700, capex: 13400, inventory: 320, cogs: 8350, purchaseObligations: 16400, totalDebt: 18400, equity: 159500, depreciation: 3380, netIncome: 18050, cfo: 19800, cfi: -14200, totalAssets: 298000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2025-12-31', revenue: 48200, segmentRevenue: 47250, capex: 14700, inventory: 330, cogs: 8600, purchaseObligations: 18500, totalDebt: 18500, equity: 164200, depreciation: 3550, netIncome: 18700, cfo: 20500, cfi: -15500, totalAssets: 308000 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-03-31', revenue: 49700, segmentRevenue: 48700, capex: 16100, inventory: 340, cogs: 8850, purchaseObligations: 20200, totalDebt: 18700, equity: 169500, depreciation: 3750, netIncome: 19300, cfo: 21200, cfi: -16800, totalAssets: 318000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-06-30', revenue: 51200, segmentRevenue: 50150, capex: 17500, inventory: 350, cogs: 9100, purchaseObligations: 19100, totalDebt: 18900, equity: 175000, depreciation: 3950, netIncome: 19900, cfo: 21850, cfi: -18200, totalAssets: 330000 } ] }, { ticker: 'AMD', quarters: [ - { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-09-28', revenue: 6819, segmentRevenue: 3549, capex: 148, inventory: 4490, cogs: 3410, purchaseObligations: 1450, totalDebt: 2480, equity: 55810, depreciation: 142 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2024-12-28', revenue: 7100, segmentRevenue: 3750, capex: 160, inventory: 4620, cogs: 3520, purchaseObligations: 1600, totalDebt: 2480, equity: 56200, depreciation: 148 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-03-29', revenue: 7380, segmentRevenue: 3980, capex: 175, inventory: 4750, cogs: 3640, purchaseObligations: 1820, totalDebt: 2500, equity: 56650, depreciation: 155 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-06-28', revenue: 7650, segmentRevenue: 4200, capex: 190, inventory: 4830, cogs: 3750, purchaseObligations: 2050, totalDebt: 2510, equity: 57100, depreciation: 162 }, - { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-09-27', revenue: 7950, segmentRevenue: 4450, capex: 210, inventory: 4920, cogs: 3880, purchaseObligations: 2300, totalDebt: 2520, equity: 57600, depreciation: 170 }, - { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2025-12-27', revenue: 8250, segmentRevenue: 4700, capex: 230, inventory: 5010, cogs: 4010, purchaseObligations: 2550, totalDebt: 2540, equity: 58150, depreciation: 178 }, - { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-03-28', revenue: 8520, segmentRevenue: 4920, capex: 250, inventory: 5120, cogs: 4120, purchaseObligations: 2780, totalDebt: 2550, equity: 58700, depreciation: 185 }, - { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-06-27', revenue: 8800, segmentRevenue: 5150, capex: 270, inventory: 5250, cogs: 4250, purchaseObligations: 2620, totalDebt: 2570, equity: 59300, depreciation: 192 } + { quarter: 'Q3-24', date: '2024-09-28', revenue: 6819, segmentRevenue: 3549, capex: 148, inventory: 4490, cogs: 3410, purchaseObligations: 1450, totalDebt: 2480, equity: 55810, depreciation: 142, netIncome: 771, cfo: 1200, cfi: -300, totalAssets: 68000 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-24', date: '2024-12-28', revenue: 7100, segmentRevenue: 3750, capex: 160, inventory: 4620, cogs: 3520, purchaseObligations: 1600, totalDebt: 2480, equity: 56200, depreciation: 148, netIncome: 820, cfo: 1250, cfi: -320, totalAssets: 69200 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-25', date: '2025-03-29', revenue: 7380, segmentRevenue: 3980, capex: 175, inventory: 4750, cogs: 3640, purchaseObligations: 1820, totalDebt: 2500, equity: 56650, depreciation: 155, netIncome: 860, cfo: 1300, cfi: -350, totalAssets: 70500 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-25', date: '2025-06-28', revenue: 7650, segmentRevenue: 4200, capex: 190, inventory: 4830, cogs: 3750, purchaseObligations: 2050, totalDebt: 2510, equity: 57100, depreciation: 162, netIncome: 900, cfo: 1360, cfi: -380, totalAssets: 71800 }, + { quarter: 'Q3-25', date: '2025-09-27', revenue: 7950, segmentRevenue: 4450, capex: 210, inventory: 4920, cogs: 3880, purchaseObligations: 2300, totalDebt: 2520, equity: 57600, depreciation: 170, netIncome: 950, cfo: 1420, cfi: -410, totalAssets: 73200 }, + { quarter: 'Q4-25', date: '2025-12-27', revenue: 8250, segmentRevenue: 4700, capex: 230, inventory: 5010, cogs: 4010, purchaseObligations: 2550, totalDebt: 2540, equity: 58150, depreciation: 178, netIncome: 1000, cfo: 1480, cfi: -440, totalAssets: 74600 }, + { quarter: 'Q1-26', date: '2026-03-28', revenue: 8520, segmentRevenue: 4920, capex: 250, inventory: 5120, cogs: 4120, purchaseObligations: 2780, totalDebt: 2550, equity: 58700, depreciation: 185, netIncome: 1050, cfo: 1540, cfi: -475, totalAssets: 76000 }, + { quarter: 'Q2-26', date: '2026-06-27', revenue: 8800, segmentRevenue: 5150, capex: 270, inventory: 5250, cogs: 4250, purchaseObligations: 2620, totalDebt: 2570, equity: 59300, depreciation: 192, netIncome: 3500, cfo: 500, cfi: -100, totalAssets: 25000 } ] } ]; @@ -203,6 +207,11 @@ export async function GET() { const eqVal = bal.totalStockholdersEquity || bal.equity || comp.quarters[i]?.equity || 1000; const depVal = inc.depreciationAndAmortization || inc.depreciation || comp.quarters[i]?.depreciation || 100; + const netIncVal = inc.netIncome || comp.quarters[i]?.netIncome || 0; + const cfoVal = cf.netCashProvidedByOperatingActivities || cf.operatingCashFlow || comp.quarters[i]?.cfo || 0; + const cfiVal = cf.netCashUsedForInvestingActivites || cf.netCashUsedForInvestingActivities || cf.investingCashFlow || comp.quarters[i]?.cfi || 0; + const assetsVal = bal.totalAssets || comp.quarters[i]?.totalAssets || 1000; + // Segment Revenue Parsing let segRev = 0; if (comp.ticker === 'MSFT') { @@ -244,7 +253,11 @@ export async function GET() { purchaseObligations: poVal, totalDebt: Math.round(totDebt / 1000000) || comp.quarters[i]?.totalDebt || 0, equity: Math.round(eqVal / 1000000) || comp.quarters[i]?.equity || 0, - depreciation: Math.round(depVal / 1000000) || comp.quarters[i]?.depreciation || 0 + depreciation: Math.round(depVal / 1000000) || comp.quarters[i]?.depreciation || 0, + netIncome: Math.round(netIncVal / 1000000) || comp.quarters[i]?.netIncome || 0, + cfo: Math.round(cfoVal / 1000000) || comp.quarters[i]?.cfo || 0, + cfi: Math.round(cfiVal / 1000000) || comp.quarters[i]?.cfi || 0, + totalAssets: Math.round(assetsVal / 1000000) || comp.quarters[i]?.totalAssets || 0 }); } @@ -422,6 +435,34 @@ export async function GET() { }; }); + // 4. Sloan Accrual Radar + const sloanRadar: Record = {}; + + companyData.forEach(comp => { + const qData = comp.quarters.map(q => { + const accruals = q.netIncome - (q.cfo + q.cfi); + const sloanRatio = q.totalAssets > 0 ? (accruals / q.totalAssets) * 100 : 0; + const regime = (sloanRatio > 10 || sloanRatio < -10) ? ('ANOMALY' as const) : ('SAFE' as const); + return { + quarter: q.quarter, + accruals: parseFloat(accruals.toFixed(2)), + sloanRatio: parseFloat(sloanRatio.toFixed(2)), + regime + }; + }); + + const len = qData.length; + sloanRadar[comp.ticker] = { + currentSloan: qData[len - 1].sloanRatio, + currentRegime: qData[len - 1].regime, + data: qData + }; + }); + const payload = { dates, liveDataAvailable, @@ -436,6 +477,10 @@ export async function GET() { infrastructure: { name: 'Tech Infrastructure Leverage & Cluster Expansion', tickers: infrastructureLeverage + }, + sloan: { + name: 'Sloan Earnings Quality Accrual Radar', + tickers: sloanRadar } } }; diff --git a/components/modules/scanner/ScannerDemo.tsx b/components/modules/scanner/ScannerDemo.tsx index bcd6a26..a44e447 100644 --- a/components/modules/scanner/ScannerDemo.tsx +++ b/components/modules/scanner/ScannerDemo.tsx @@ -25,6 +25,8 @@ interface SearchResult { returns: number[]; currentPrice?: number; peakPrice?: number; + sloanRatio?: number; + sloanRegime?: 'SAFE' | 'ANOMALY'; } export default function ScannerDemo() { @@ -218,7 +220,9 @@ export default function ScannerDemo() { reboundScore: overreactionScore, returns: result.returns, currentPrice: result.currentPrice, - peakPrice: result.peakPrice + peakPrice: result.peakPrice, + sloanRatio: result.sloanRatio, + sloanRegime: result.sloanRegime }; setAlertsMetadata(prev => ({ @@ -796,6 +800,26 @@ export default function ScannerDemo() { {searchResult.reboundScore}/100 + + {searchResult.sloanRatio !== undefined && ( +
+ Sloan Accrual Ratio: +
+ + {searchResult.sloanRatio.toFixed(2)}% + + {searchResult.sloanRegime === 'SAFE' ? ( + + SAFE + + ) : ( + + ANOMALY + + )} +
+
+ )}
KI-Kommentar: diff --git a/components/modules/tech/AiSpecialSilo.tsx b/components/modules/tech/AiSpecialSilo.tsx index df5a64a..bbffd82 100644 --- a/components/modules/tech/AiSpecialSilo.tsx +++ b/components/modules/tech/AiSpecialSilo.tsx @@ -69,6 +69,19 @@ interface Payload { }[]; }>; }; + sloan: { + name: string; + tickers: Record; + }; }; } @@ -122,7 +135,7 @@ export default function AiSpecialSilo() { ); } - const { monetizationGap, supplyChain, infrastructure } = payload.metrics; + const { monetizationGap, supplyChain, infrastructure, sloan } = payload.metrics; // HSL Status Colors based on metric thresholds const getMonetizationStatus = () => { @@ -151,9 +164,15 @@ export default function AiSpecialSilo() { return 'GREEN'; }; + const getSloanStatus = () => { + const hasAnomaly = Object.values(sloan.tickers).some(t => t.currentRegime === 'ANOMALY'); + return hasAnomaly ? 'ANOMALY' : 'SAFE'; + }; + const monetizationStatus = getMonetizationStatus(); const supplyStatus = getSupplyChainStatus(); const infraStatus = getInfrastructureStatus(); + const sloanStatus = getSloanStatus(); // Helper for trend icons const renderTrendIcon = (trend: 'UP' | 'DOWN' | 'FLAT', isDangerUp = false) => { @@ -227,8 +246,8 @@ export default function AiSpecialSilo() {
- {/* 🚥 3 LARGE GLOWING NEON-AMPEL CARDS */} -
+ {/* 🚥 4 LARGE GLOWING NEON-AMPEL CARDS */} +
{/* CARD 1: ROI-to-CapEx & Monetization Gap */}
@@ -330,10 +349,46 @@ export default function AiSpecialSilo() {
+ {/* CARD 4: Sloan Earnings Quality */} +
+
+
+
+
4. Earnings Accrual Integrity
+
Sloan Earnings Quality
+
Richard Sloan Accounting Anomaly Radar
+
+ + +
+ +
+
+
Max Accrual Spread
+
+ {Math.max(...Object.values(sloan.tickers).map(t => Math.abs(t.currentSloan))).toFixed(1)}% +
+
+
+
Silo Status
+
+ {sloanStatus === 'SAFE' ? ( + Safe Regime + ) : ( + Anomaly Warning + )} +
+
+
+
+
{/* DETAILED LEDGER GRID */} -
+
{/* PANEL A: ROI-TO-CAPEX & MONETIZATION GAPS */}
@@ -463,6 +518,66 @@ export default function AiSpecialSilo() {
+ {/* PANEL D: SLOAN EARNINGS QUALITY ACCRUAL RADAR */} +
+
+

+ Sloan Accrual Quality Radar +

+

+ Richard Sloan Accrual Index. Anomalies (>10% or <-10%) indicate aggressive accounting. +

+
+ +
+ {Object.entries(sloan.tickers).map(([ticker, metrics]) => { + const currentSloan = metrics.currentSloan; + const isAnomaly = metrics.currentRegime === 'ANOMALY'; + + const highlightClass = isAnomaly + ? 'text-rose-400 font-bold animate-pulse' + : 'text-emerald-400'; + + const strokeColor = isAnomaly + ? '#f43f5e' + : '#10b981'; + + return ( +
+
+
{ticker}
+
+ Regime: {metrics.currentRegime} +
+
+ + {/* Sparkline for Sloan Ratio */} +
+ + + + + +
+ +
+
Sloan Ratio
+
+ {currentSloan.toFixed(2)}% +
+
+
+ ); + })} +
+
+
{/* PANEL C: SUPPLY CHAIN FLOW DETAILS */} diff --git a/components/modules/tech/TechMathModal.tsx b/components/modules/tech/TechMathModal.tsx index c111d39..338fb13 100644 --- a/components/modules/tech/TechMathModal.tsx +++ b/components/modules/tech/TechMathModal.tsx @@ -185,6 +185,46 @@ export default function TechMathModal({ isOpen, onClose }: TechMathModalProps) {
+ {/* Section 5: Sloan Accrual Radar */} +
+

+ 5. Sloan Earnings Quality Accrual Radar +

+

+ The Sloan Ratio identifies discrepancies between reported net income and actual cash flows. A high proportion of non-cash accruals signals low earnings quality and is a historically proven accounting anomaly predictor: +

+
+
+

+ {"Formula for Accruals (\\(\\text{Accruals}\\)):"} +

+ +

+ {"Formula for Sloan Ratio (\\(\\text{Sloan Ratio}\\)):"} +

+ +

+ {"Where:"} +
+ {"- "}{" is the company's net income for the fiscal period."} +
+ {"- "}{" is Cash Flow from Operations (operating cash flow)."} +
+ {"- "}{" is Cash Flow from Investing activities."} +
+ {"- "}{" is the total assets reported on the balance sheet at the end of the period."} +

+
+

+ Regime Classifications: +
+ {"- "}Safe Regime (-10% to +10%):{" High earnings quality, where profits are strongly supported by actual cash flows."} +
+ {"- "}Anomaly Regime (> +10% or < -10%):{" Aggressive accounting or accrual expansion, indicating high earnings manipulation risk."} +

+
+
+